You've heard the expression that a rising tide lifts all boats, which is a phrase commonly attributed to JFK in a speech he did in 1963. I heard another speaker who, trying to be clever, put in his two cents on the phrase by adding “but some boats will rise more than others.” It actually stuck with me and got me thinking about other aspects of life, including business, money, health, family, etc... But for the purposes of this newsletter, let’s discuss money, money, money...
I believe we are on the precipice of one of the greatest "predictable" bull markets that we are going to see in our lifetime. I'm talking about the cyclical ups and downs of the mining sector. Sure, there are going to be breakthroughs in technology, healthcare, and innovation, but I'm talking about a sector that historically cycles and is currently so depressed, it’s right on the verge of what will likely be one of the greatest bull markets we are going to see over the next 100 years.
If you ever lived in or have travelled on the east coast, you would know that trains and subways play a major role in transportation in the big cities. When it comes to wanting to get to your destination, you don't know exactly if the train will be on time, early, or a little late – you just know you want to ride the train and get to your destination. The important thing in accomplishing this is being onboard.
When I think of what the mining sector bull market is going to look like, I can't help but get extremely optimistic. Everyone is trying to bottom-pick now, hoping they are getting in at the absolute bottom. No one knows for sure if we are here, but one thing for sure is that we are close, and if you want to be a part of this ride, you better get on the train.
So if you can use your imagination with me here as I attempt to combine two metaphors: be sure you get on the train before it leaves the station, and make sure you're on the right boat – the one that will rise the most.
The two most notable bull markets in the past 50 years are the one that occurred during the 1970s and the most recent one, which took place in the 2000s. You can see how spectacular the bull markets were by glancing at this chart.
Even the years in between -- which saw less impressive moves -- had cyclical patterns, and you can be sure going forward that we are going to see this party start.
If history is any indication of what to expect in the future, as bad as the bear markets are, the bull markets are even that much more impressive.
Look for our next pick, coming this weekend. This is a company "boat" you are going to want to rise with when this tide turns around!