Impending economic disaster. Manipulated government statistics. An unsustainable national debt. If these topics sound typical of a Ron Paul newsletter, you would be right. Arguably one of the biggest heroes of the liberty and Tea Party movement, Dr. Paul has been at the forefront of pushing fiscal sanity -- even before it was popular on YouTube! Unfortunately, Ron Paul's message continues to be downplayed by the mainstream media, but the message is now being carried by an unprecedented force of nature -- Donald Trump.
The multi-billionaire real estate mogul has yet again brought another issue to the table that will not be ignored. Donald Trump made financial headlines by stating that the U.S. is headed for a massive recession unless sharp, corrective action can be taken. This of course runs counter to mainstream wisdom, which views a rising stock market and firming jobs reports as clear evidence that America is on the path of recovery, not recession.
That would be true if government statistics are to be believed. Here, Donald Trump lays down a major charge -- the data simply isn't real. The claimed 5% unemployment is well off the target and doesn't include large portions of the population that are seeking work, but can't get it. To be fair, that's not a unique claim. What is unique here is that this is the Republican front runner that is forwarding those claims, giving them an audacious flair.
Additionally, Donald Trump stated quite emphatically that the U.S. equity markets are over-valued, and that this would be a bad time to invest in the financial markets. This is a more than reasonable argument, from both a fundamental and technical perspective. While the blue chip indices are in the black for the year, several technical indicators suggest the markets are overbought. Comparatively, international indices are broadly suffering under the weight of poor economic conditions.
However, this is more than just a charting exercise. Trump's bearishness does not bode well for Wall Street. Who the hell wants to hear that the markets are not a good investment when the markets are the only means by which you make a living? While Trump wins favors from blue-collar workers -- his core target audience -- he's not doing the equivalent from fund managers. I'd go so far as to say they hate the guy, and would do anything to prevent a Trump presidency.
This brings up a tantalizing scenario. Suppose Donald Trump wins the White House. What happens to the markets? While there are studies that indicate what could happen depending upon whether a Democrat or a Republican becomes President, there's never been a leading candidate that has had such a bearish sentiment, even to the point of urging people to avoid the markets. Will Wall Street take note?
Ultimately, the marriage of politics and economics is a diversion. No President can entirely impact the financial markets or the stability of our economy, Unfortunately for whoever takes office, they may do so under one of the worst times for the markets. But if Trump wins it all, you can virtually guarantee one thing -- the media will hang the economy on his neck, and from there, it may be a long time until a true conservative takes office next.