Remember how the “strong consumer” was supposed to save the economy in 2023? That narrative isn’t working out too well now with high gas prices ($6 per gallon in California!) boosting inflation and shoppers reflexively closing their wallets and purses.

It’s not the end of the world, but it could spell the end of the bull market in large-cap stocks. Whenever the U.S. government shuts down, there are ripple effects throughout the economy – and even a “Teflon” market will have trouble shaking off the disruptive impact.

Some commentators are apparently surprised that oil is heading toward $100 per barrel now. Really, though, what’s surprising is that it took so long for the petroleum price to reach this level.

If there’s one word that would sum up today’s financial market conditions, it would be indecisive. Large-cap stocks have been chopping around – one day up, the next day coughing up the gains – as traders weigh a slew of problems and prophesies.

You may have heard about the “madness of the crowds” and the idea that 90% of amateur investors are on the wrong side of the trade at any given moment. There’s certainly some merit to that idea, but contrarianism can be taken too far and this can inhibit your long-term results.

As usual, applying linear, common-sense logic to the financial markets will only fray your sanity. At any given moment, bad news can be good or bad for stocks and other assets. The only way to make sense of it all is to apply Charlie Munger’s principle: “show me the incentive, and I’ll tell you the outcome.”

Seasonality patterns don’t always play out, but they’re a useful guide for investors generally. After all, the immediate future may be hard to predict, but at least we have data from the past to help us know when to scale in and when to scale back.

Usually, people at the highest levels of government are slow to understand or accept cryptocurrency and the blockchain. However, every once in a while they get it right. That’s why progress will be gradual, but inevitable, for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the U.S.

It’s late bull market behavior at its finest. At the annual Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell unequivocally declared that the central bank is “prepared to raise rates further” in its quest to bring inflation down to 2%.

If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wanted to see signs of a downshift in the U.S. economy, this is definitely one of them. After numerous successive federal funds rate hikes with a pause in between, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is now 7.48%.

The Federal Reserve’s function is to protect the U.S. economy and the best interests of American consumers, savers, retirees, and investors – or at least, that’s what the elite Fed officials would certainly like you to believe. As always, however, career politicians and central bankers are continuing the long-standing tradition of blurring the lines between myth and reality.

If Event A preceded Event B 10 out of 10 times in the past, that’s a strong correlation and is worth examining. Whether it’s investable information is a different story entirely. Even the most consistent streaks can be broken, especially during a time of many unprecedented events.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” That quote from Sir John Templeton is older than any of us living today, but it’s as relevant in today’s market landscape as it’s ever been.

What would it take for the most hated bull market to end, and for the most anticipated recession to begin? If you’re a true contrarian, then you’ll intuitively understand that stocks won’t fall until the pundits’ persistent calls for a crash are finally silenced.

It’s that time again. Stock investors are yearning for earnings, and they’re getting a mixed bag of data for the pundits to feast upon. The majority of mega-cap companies are “beating” earnings, which begs the question of whether these corporations are actually thriving, or maybe the bar has just been set too low.