Something that the BLS isn’t in charge of, Actual Earnings
4 out of 6 department stores and 3 out 4 discounters missed estimates for April sales. Too bad private companies can’t include birth death sales and assume sales are happening somewhere in their stores. -Joke of course-
It’s always a gamble since the number is more of a guess, you just never know what the birth death model is going to factor in, as well as, how many people gave up looking for work and are now considered out of the labor force.
The most interesting thing will be how is Wall Street going to react to tomorrow’s report. If it is good, that means no more QE, so Wall Street could panic and the sell in May and go away could start. Of course if we see a large downside surprise, this could create a struggle in between selling the fundamentals and buying the next round of FED money printing.
Trading large companies really is a casino game, 86% of shares are now traded by high frequency trading programs, which is one of the reasons CrushTheStreet.com sticks with micro-caps for both day trading and long term trades. With micro-caps, we can easily pick up the phone and speak with the CEO.
Crude dropped its most in almost 5 months today, the S&P 500 index is near its 50 day moving average, and silver is sitting on top of its $30 support level.
Add in the European crisis and the U.S. election and what you have is a lot of speculation. The U.S. is still in a downturn and the FED will have to print in order to keep the illusion going, something we believe the FED will announce in the next 60 days.
So the risk of a pull back is significant in our opinion, however, we believe the volatility will be difficult to trade as the FED could step in at any moment and cause a massive rally in the markets.
Keep an eye on the reaction of the markets tomorrow. If we rally, expect a crash to follow shortly as the FED will have its hand forced and will have to scare the markets more aggressively.
Mike Krieger is one of our favorites, in fact, we often try and post his articles at CrushTheStreet.com.
He has launched a new blog at LibertyBlitzKrieg.com
We highly recommend everyone go and visit it today and everyday as Mike will be sharing his thoughts with his daily posts.