Developing nations that will soon become “developed” have added a naturally mathematical burden on current supply, with demand being attributed to both industry and agriculture to sustain nominal growth as well as qualitative growth. It is the latter that will likely catch many Westerners, especially Americans, off-guard. No longer will the bulk of the Third World be content with mere sustenance: it will be prosperity that they seek, the kind enjoyed by most in America. It can also be concluded that a global rise in standard of living would directly correlate with longer average life spans, further draining an already constrained resource.

Currently, PIO stands at $18.87 and may likely hit a short-term correction soon. This is based on the fact that since the faster 50 day moving average (blue-line) crossed above the slower 200 DMA (red line) in September of last year, PIO saw a lift of around +12%. The last bullish crossing of the moving averages occurred between October 2010 and August 2011, where PIO experienced a net +10% move before the price collapsed, initiating a bearish cross that lasted until March of 2012, resulting in a net -11% loss. The hesitation that PIO is lingering though at present suggests a loss of technical momentum: the declining RSI and MAC-D indicators confirm this. Also, with a 12% move already in the bag after September 2012’s bullish cross, the cycle of this ETF is leaning towards near-term bearishness.

However, a rising level of support should prevent PIO from falling too far below the $17 level. If confirmed, this would keep intact a well-defined trend channel that has been in play since December of 2011. From $17, I would look for a realistic price target of $19.50, which would secure a near 15% profit. The downside is the $14.50 price point which we saw in late 2011, which from $17 would also equate to near 15% loss, balancing out the risk:reward ratio to 1:1.