In a “Dollar Rally Induced Liquidity Crisis and a Late September Warning,” published (Twitter thread) on Sep. 10, concerns about the Sep. 24 time frame began to manifest on Sep. 17 when Russia raised concerns about long-range missiles being transferred into Ukraine by NATO that threaten Russian sovereign territory. On Sep. 20, Russian-occupied oblasts in Ukraine’s Donbas region, which includes Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, the Donetsk Republic, and the Lugansk Republic, announced that “urgent referendums on joining Russia to pave the way for Russian annexation” would be held Sep. 23-27. The former president and current head of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, noted that a vote by the people would be irreversible and relevant amendments will be applied to the Russian Constitution. “No future leader of Russia or official will be able to reverse the decisions.”
On Sep. 21, a prerecorded speech by President Putin and military orders from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were broadcast across Russia’s 12 time zones at 1am ET. They announced a decree on the partial mobilization of military reservists and the Duma’s reasoning behind it. On Sep. 22, Medvedev elucidated on Russia’s nuclear umbrella and that it would include newly-annexed territory as Russian sovereign territory.
“In its aggressive anti-Russian policy, the West has crossed every line. We constantly hear threats against our country, our people. Some irresponsible politicians in the West not only talk about plans to organize the supply of long-range offensive weapons to Ukraine – systems that will allow strikes against the Crimea and other regions of Russia… In Washington, London, Brussels, they are directly pushing Kyiv to transfer military operations to our territory. No longer hiding, they say that Russia should be defeated by all means… followed by the deprivation of any sovereignty and the complete plunder of our country… Nuclear blackmail was also launched. We are talking not only about the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant… but also about the statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia – nuclear weapons… If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It’s not a bluff.” – Putin via Naked Capitalism, Sep. 21
“Only citizens who are currently in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the ranks of the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience will be subject to conscription for military service… Putin said that the current conflict was instigated by the West, noting that the Western countries seek the destruction and disintegration of Russia. He said that the West had been supporting international terrorists, promoted the infrastructure of the NATO offensive close to Russia’s borders, and fostered Russophobia. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that 300,000 reservists will be mobilized.” – Shoigu via Moon of Alabama, Sep. 21
Shoigu: Russia is at war not only with Ukraine, but with collective West… “I cannot but emphasize the fact that today we are at war not so much with Ukraine and the Ukrainian army as with the collective West.” – TASS, Sep. 21
U.S. has sent private warnings for months to Russia about using nuclear weapons – Washington Post, Sep. 22
Historic Context Of The Referenda In Ukraine – Moon of Alabama, Sep. 23
Verbose responses from NATO and U.S. officialdom sound delusionary, panicked, and desperate. Zelensky’s comeback doesn’t bode well for restoring diplomacy and peace to deescalate the quagmire, and that’s after repeatedly sabotaging two Minsk agreements, walking away and/or violating ceasefire attempts multiple times, and the indiscriminate shelling of citizens for eight years in the Donbas region that continued this week (graphic warning). I’ll save the rest of that horrific soap opera and how the current checkmate attempt by Putin resolves itself in the next installment of the “Little Green Men” series (thread).
In “A Dark Age Winter of Discontent in Europe” Part 2 and its thread, we left off when the U.S. and NATO were talking up a storm about implementing price caps on Russian oil exports. Half of the world is purchasing Russia’s oil and natural gas exports on the cheap, so the E.U. lords dropped their plan to cap prices after having their “come to Jesus” moment in Brussels.
The founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, set the record straight last week about any debate over oil markets vs. Europe’s energy crisis: “It’s not a one winter story, let’s just make it very, very clear.”
Western sanctions that target Russia have backfired on the West’s economy by launching an energy crisis that worsened inflation pressures, heightened food insecurity on the heels of Great Reset greenie policies, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening has accelerated recessionary conditions in Europe. Some folks get it, but a majority of politicos and zombie peasants appear clueless or bought off by Klaus Schwab’s promises of a Borg utopia.
Russian president calls war ‘sanctions fever’ a global threat… “Putin denied using energy as a ‘weapon’ and defended the decision this week to indefinitely shut the key Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline to Europe as a consequence of European sanctions.” – Bloomberg, Sep. 7
The situation in Europe is much worse than many understand… “We are essentially on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households, and thus on the brink of the collapse of our economies (1 of 4).” – Associate Professor of Economics and CEO of GnS Economics, Tuomas Malinen, Sep. 7
Shock Waves Hit the Global Economy, Posing Grave Risk to Europe… “While growth is slowing worldwide, ‘in Europe it’s altogether more serious because it’s driven by a more fundamental deterioration,’ said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics. Real incomes and living standards are falling, he added. ‘Europe and Britain are just worse off.’” – NYT, Sep. 8
The World Doesn’t Have Enough LNG Export Capacity to Keep Europe Warm… “Europe may be freezing in winters until 2027 according to the head of Citigroup commodities research, Ed Morse.” – Young Research, Sep. 9
Collapse of Europe awaits, the clock is ticking… “Regional Director Europe of the International association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP), stated in an interview that: ‘Even if you boost any other alternatives from now on to 2026, 2027, Europe will not be able to supply its gas demand.’ Alas, we are not talking about next year or even year after that but a period of seven years of gas delivery disruptions. Essentially this ‘screams bloody murder’ for the European corporate sector and to households in kind. Moreover, the whole electricity balance of Europe for the winter, basically, depends on Norwegian hydro-power. Late August Norway announced that they will cut electricity exports due to low hydro-reservoir levels.” –Tuomas Malinen, Sep. 12
US shale bosses tell Europe: ‘There’s no bailout coming’… “The US shale industry has warned it cannot rescue Europe with increased oil and gas supplies this winter amid fears that a plunge in Russian exports will send crude prices soaring.” – Financial Times, Sep. 14
India Will Also Suffer… “‘It is a grim scenario in the next 12 months. I do not see either of the two sides giving up easily and that is bad for the world economy and it is bad for the Indian economy,’ says Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, ET Now.” – Economic Times, Sep. 8
Oil Falls Below $80… “‘Fears of a hard landing for the US economy and global economy are working its way into the system,’ said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital. Using interest rates like ‘a mallet to the global economy’ may curtail economic activity and ‘that’s why you’re seeing the selloff.’” – Bloomberg, Sep. 23
Poor monetary policy is an understatement, Says Prof. Jeremy Siegel on Fed hikes – CNBC, Sep. 23
JP Morgan’s CEO voiced his candid opinion to Rep. Rashida Tlaib last week during a Banking Oversight Committee hearing on Capitol Hill. Tlaib insisted that banks discontinue financing the U.S. hydrocarbon industry, and Jamie Dimon promptly replied by stating “absolutely not, and that would be the road to hell for America.” I humbly agree with Dimon.
Banks Dust Off Lockdown Plans to Beat Possible Power Blackouts in London… “Plans include shifting to offsite locations and home working… Firms are also studying the experience of South Africa, where rolling power cuts are part of daily life… The renewed focus comes amid a global energy crisis, prompting concern that outages could occur as temperatures drop. Those fears are particularly acute in Europe, whose energy needs have long been underpinned by Russian gas… Any outage of banking services would pose serious disruption given the ubiquity of cashless transactions. ‘My core concern is not the bank itself but that it’s in a universe of third-party providers or clients and that can fail, causing a cascading effect,’ said Pescaroli, who has advised the Greater London Authority on power outages.” – Bloomberg, Sep. 23
The industrial base in Europe is taking a brutal beating that will severely impact everything that originates in the manufacturing sector, including jobs, consumer products, base metals, and the energy grid. Europe’s top steel plants are scaling back operations or closing up shop, and the world’s largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, released a statement in early September that it’s shutting down two plants and idling one. ArcelorMittal blamed smelter shutdowns on “the exorbitant rise in energy prices and weak market demand and a negative economic outlook” as energy hyperinflation sends Europe into a deep recession. Europe’s largest aluminum smelter must reduce production by 22% due to soaring power prices, threatening the industry’s existence.
In Germany, one of every six industrial companies feels forced to reduce production due to high energy prices. In an attempt to stave off the collapse, Germany has resorted to nationalizing three Russian-owned refineries before the E.U. embargo on oil from Russia takes effect in 2023. Where are they going to get the oil for the refineries? Germany is also bailing out gas giant Uniper by injecting $7.9 billion in return for equity. Legacy media already coined the Uniper deal as a Lehman moment for European energy.
The average citizen will suffer the most as they’re asked to sacrifice more while old man winter plows his way into Europe. I’ll leave you this evening with examples of European-style rationing and toilet training and an important interview with war correspondent Michael Yon. Whether you live in the U.S. or Europe, stock up on nonperishable food items while you still can at lower price points, have an emergency alternative for boiling water, and keep extra cash nearby if the banking behemoths run into trouble or ATMs cease to function due to blackouts. It’s always better to be prepared instead of wishing you were when it’s needed the most.
Switzerland Suggests People Shower Together to Save Energy… “Switzerland’s environment minister Simonetta Sommaruga is facing backlash, after recommending… that people ‘turn off the computer when you don’t need it, or turn off lights, or shower together’ as part of her measures promoting a 15% reduction in energy consumption.” – Epoch Times, Sep. 19
Residents of Estonia are being taught how to do without working toilets with video instructions linked by Dan Bardak.
Michael Yon: Western Europe is Destroying Itself – Sep. 24
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