A decision in the spring of 2023 by the U.S., NATO, and allies after the fall of Bakhmut to supply Ukraine with F-16s and required logistical support was an about-face to President Biden’s previous admonition that providing offensive weapon systems would launch WW3. He also ignored active-duty generals who advised that F-16s “won’t be a game-changer” but neocon war dogs do not entertain any counter factual since the Maidan coup in 2014 decapitated the state of Ukraine. Biden boasted last May that he received an assurance from Zelensky that any fighter jets supplied would not be used “to move onto or hit Russia’s geographic territory” even as his armed forces intentionally bomb innocent civilians in border areas that are unrelated to military habitation, has hit Moscow, and targets critical infrastructure. Among the 14 countries who have pledged to deliver the aircraft and/or logistics, materials, and training for Ukrainian pilots and ground crews, the Dutch government insisted that Ukraine must have airfields and ground operations in place before it transfers its warplanes. I’ll cover more about Ukraine’s airbase shortfalls later.

Sending American Offensive Equipment To Ukraine Is ‘WW3’ – President Biden, Mar. 2022

 

NATO & Allies Back Plan To Provide Ukraine With F-16s – NBC, May 2023

 

Earlier this month, the Netherlands cancelled plans to sell F-16s to Draken International, a Florida-based provider of adversarial training services to the U.S. Air Force. Those military planes are being prepared for handover to Ukraine and remain in service with the Netherlands RNLAF. Additionally, the number of Dutch aircraft slated for Ukraine increased to 24. In Aug. 2023, Denmark and the Netherlands announced a combined total of 42 fighter jets, but that number is likely outdated in the fog of war. It appears that the Netherlands, U.K., Denmark, and Lockheed Martin are the main players in coordinating European efforts to provide F-16 capabilities and training for maintenance, ground crews, and Ukrainian pilots. The Ukrainian foreign minister estimated that 150 fighter jets were needed to adequately protect the country’s airspace. A majority of fighter aircraft being handed over to Ukraine are scheduled to be replaced by F-35s.

The U.K. government Website states that the training of Ukraine’s military personnel began on U.K. soil in 2014 following the Maidan Revolution while English language lessons and pilot flight training by the RAF was undertaken in Aug. 2023. In October, the U.S. confirmed the training of pilots on F-16 Falcon fighter jets at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona. English language courses are taking place at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, which determines when each pilot can proceed to fighter jet school in Arizona. In September, Lt. Gen. Michael Loh informed journos that some pilots would complete flight training at the end of 2023, but no indication was provided of when they would engage in sorties over Ukraine. In November, the Netherlands delivered its first batch of F-16s being stationed in Romania where Ukrainian pilots and support crews are training. After digging through a plethora of mainstream and alternative media sources, the most likely timeframe for F-16s to head to Ukraine is the spring of 2024. Note that Denmark’s aircraft delivery was reported yesterday as being delayed until the summer. The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson appeared on the country’s national television last month to say that pilots were flying in the sky with instructors, and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that “pilots, engineers, and infrastructure are being prepared.”

Ukraine Expected to Employ F-16s in 2024… “Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said in November 2023 after American training of Ukrainian pilots began that instruction would take five to nine months, with the timeline ‘very much predicated on the skill level of the individual pilots.’ Ukrainian pilots are transferring over from twin-engine Soviet-style Sukhois and MiGs to single-engine, multi-role F-16s, an added learning curve. ‘That’s an assessment that essentially is tailored to the current situation,’ Ryder said of the training timeline. A typical F-16 training course with the 162nd Wing takes roughly six months.” – Air & Space Forces Magazine, Jan. 24, 2024

A rumor circulated in late January claiming an F-16 combat mission flew into Ukraine.

Romania Debunks Ukraine F-16 Secret Combat Mission Rumors – C.W. Lemoine, Feb. 10

 

 

The final red lines for Russia are the expansion of NATO and nuclear capable missiles deployed near its border, the introduction of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil and/or the frontline (a ‘foreign legion’ of mercenaries already participate in the conflict since 2022 [video], and NGOs and Moscow are acutely aware of NATO troops disguised as mercenaries operating in Ukraine), an attack upon Russian troops or its sovereign territory by NATO members or allies, the use of a tactical or conventional nuclear weapon within the battlespace, or the introduction of strategic bombers or F-16s into the airspace that are capable of delivering nuclear weaponry. It was reported last month that the U.K. will once again house tactical nuclear weapons that include the B61-12 gravity bomb in NATO’s arsenal that can be delivered by F-16s.

Russia Says F-16 Jets in Ukraine Will Be Seen as ‘Nuclear’ Threat… “‘Russia cannot ignore the ability of these aircraft to carry nuclear weapons. No amount of assurances will help here,’ Lavrov was quoted as saying by the Russian Foreign Ministry. ‘In the course of combat operations, our servicemen are not going to sort out whether each particular aircraft of this type is equipped to deliver nuclear weapons or not. We will regard the very fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have such systems as a threat from the West in the nuclear sphere.’” – Moscow Times, Jul. 2023

 

US to station nuclear weapons in UK to counter threat from Russia… “Warheads to be housed at RAF Lakenheath for first time in 15 years, Pentagon documents reveal, as Moscow warns of ‘escalation.’ RAF Lakenheath is expected to house B61-12 gravity bombs, which have a variable yield of up to 50 kilotons – more than three times the power of the atomic weapon dropped on Hiroshima in 1945… In October, US officials requested permission from Congress to begin development of a new B61 bomb with a higher payload, arguing that more powerful weapons would ‘provide the president with additional options against certain harder and large-area military targets.” – The Telegraph, Jan. 2024

Fact Sheet: United States Non-strategic Nuclear Weapons… “The current U.S. tactical nuclear arsenal is comprised of approximately 230 B61 gravity bombs in two versions, the B61-3 and B61-4. Dual-capable NATO-designated F-15, F-16, and PA-200 Tornado fighter planes are the current systems capable of delivering the B-61, while the F-35A is slated to become nuclear-certified for future B61 missions. Most NATO allies active in the nuclear sharing mission are in the process of modernizing their air forces to include the F-35A. The U.S. Air Force deploys an estimated 100 B61s at six NATO air bases in five countries. The remaining nuclear weapons are stored in the United States for possible overseas deployment… The B61-13 would be carried by the same bombers and fighters as the B61-12, though the current plan foresees use of the B61-13 on bombers only, possibly so as not to signal deployment of a higher yield nuclear weapon in Europe.” – Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Nov. 2023

Yesterday, NATO’s Secretary General Stoltenberg interviewed with Radio Free Europe and noted in the context of discussing F-16s that Ukraine has the right to self-defense, including “striking legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine.” It’s not a coincidence that Stoltenberg expressed that point of view after Ukraine experienced the sudden collapse of Avdiivka that I covered in the “Surge of ‘Little Green Men,’ and Metal is Poised to Strike” Part XVIII (Twitter thread).

 

Russia has repeatedly expressed that existing international law grants the right to militarily strike a third party or nation state’s infrastructure that provides weapons and/or logistical support to an enemy during war. In the context of the NATO’s proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, that includes striking U.S., NATO members, and allied territory. It was also made clear that any weapon systems delivered by third parties through Ukraine would be targeted upon identification, which already occurred on numerous occasions using conventional weaponry and hypersonic missiles armed with non-nuclear warheads. Don’t you think the U.S. striking Iran-backed proxies and supply lines in the Middle East that supported Hamas in its war against Israel validates Russia’s legal authority to strike NATO territory? Putin has been exceptionally restrained based on circumstances surrounding the war in Ukraine and the proliferation of legacy media narratives.

Medvedev predicts Apocalypse in event of Russia-NATO war… “Leaders should tell the bitter truth to their voters instead of treating them as brainless idiots. They should explain to them what will really happen instead of repeating the deceitful mantra about readiness for a war with Russia.” – Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, Feb. 2024

The issue with Ukraine utilizing F-16s to strike Russian troop positions or target inside Russia proper is it no longer has a sovereign airbase capable of supporting F-16s (Col. Douglas Macgregor’s Aug. 2023 analyses). It also lacks the integrated space-based and land-based communications technology required to execute sorties that must be supported by NATO or U.S. AWACS, miscellaneous functions and intelligence from NATO members, and spare parts and supplies support from the U.S. If an attempt is made to buildout a new or existing airfield, Russia will incinerate that location in the same way it already disabled Ukraine’s airbases and air force. That leaves a distinct possibility of F-16s entering the battlespace via a third-party nation. The moment any fighter jets are detected within Ukraine, in its airspace, or approaching the battlefield frontline they will be targeted and destroyed.

That scenario immediately raises the possibility of NATO activating its Article 5 provision for war against Russia, then war will be declared on the collective West by Russia and its strategic allies. Putin openly admits that Russia cannot match NATO’s combined conventional military strength despite its own superior manufacturing base and logistical advantages, so any attack by NATO would be considered an “existential threat.” That opens the door to tactical nuclear weapons being used to blunt the enemy on a battlefield. Where it goes from there depends on the collective West’s response, which will be answered in kind by Russia.

Macron and Putin Presser, NATO vs. Russia – Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Feb. 8, 2022

 

“I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff. The citizens of Russia can rest assured that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be defended – I repeat – by all the systems available to us. Those who are using nuclear blackmail against us should know that the wind rose can turn around.” – Putin, Sep. 2023

Are you getting the picture and what is likely on the table? A recent survey of Europeans found that only up to 17% believe Kyiv can win the war against Russia, up to 31% see Russia winning, more than a third expect a compromise, and less than a third do not have an opinion.

 

Despite an awakening to inconvenient truths and the realization that previous sanctions infamously backfired on the West, another wave of sanctions from Europe and the U.S. were announced today based on the Navalny narrative as two-thirds of Americans prefer diplomacy to end the war while politicos obstinately ignore their constituency. European and U.S. leadership continues to find avenues for funding the war amid internal political pressure to end military aid for Ukraine and address pressing domestic issues instead of continuing the ruse with fiat bread and wartime circuses.

 

Megadeth – Symphony of Destruction

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter, Gettr / Website: TraderStef.com