War is not won due to misplaced moral supremacy, propaganda, bravado, bravery, morale, covert operations (like the Nordstream pipeline destruction), intelligence, technology, sanctions, or the number of allies, soldiers, armor, tanks, ammunition, vessels, aircraft, rockets, or missiles a country has. Possessing an advantage within those factors can certainly enhance the potential for success, but geography, strategy, and logistics combined with readily available raw materials, commodities, and resources within a supply chain that’s not a weak or overextended line ultimately solidifies final victory.

“Quartermaster General gameboard and its WW1 and Cold War themed sequels manage to simplify complicated global warfare into an easily manageable strategic game while shifting the focus to supply lines and logistics.” – Wargamer

Despite an ongoing false narrative that Russia is incompetent and has been running out of missiles, ammo, and armor as early as last spring, the collective West currently finds itself in a deepening quagmire of its own making. Officialdom is openly noting in earnest that NATO membership has expended all readily available war stocks of weaponry for Ukraine’s military and is doing everything it can “to give them as much ammunition as quickly as possible.”  The West’s manufacturing base is “unable to gear up fast enough to provide the surge capacity” it had over half a century ago.

Ukrainian troops and the foreign legion are being slaughtered in a horrendous “meat grinder” through attrition with hundreds of casualties per day on the battlefield due to overwhelming firepower. The Russian military is “firing a staggering 20k artillery rounds per day, while Ukraine is firing 4-7k rounds daily.” Reliable alternative sources report that Russia fires up to 60k rockets or missiles daily as Ukraine barely manages 10k artillery rounds, and U.S. forces are tweaking their training of Ukrainian troops to use less ammunition. Therefore, any loss or gain in territory is a non-issue from the hammer’s point of view that’s purposely experiencing much fewer casualties. Meanwhile, Zelensky was squawking yesterday that “our tanks will be parked on Moscow’s Red Square, and that will be justice.” It appears that the only wardog in this fight that’s backed into a corner and barking is the West.

Ammo, Tanks, Russian Offensive – Col. Douglas Macgregor w/Judge Napolitano, Feb. 15

 

Stoltenberg Says Ukraine Using Way More Munitions Than NATO Can Produce… “NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that Ukrainian forces are using significantly more ammunition than the alliance’s members can produce, putting a strain on Western stockpiles… ‘The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain,’ he added. Stoltenberg said that NATO needs to ‘ramp up production’ and that the defense ministers meeting will focus on ‘ways to increase our defense industrial capacity and replenish stockpiles’… But even with the US and NATO’s plans to increase production, it’s not clear if the policy of flooding Ukraine with weapons is sustainable… Stoltenberg said NATO is in a ‘race of logistics’ to deliver equipment to Ukraine as Russia is making more gains in the Donbas. ‘Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield’… Each new weapon brings NATO and Russia closer to a direct clash, something Stoltenberg has previously warned could happen.” – AntiWar.com, Feb. 13, 2023

With MAD and “Dead Hand” devices (aka Dead Man’s Switches) there are no winners if one side mistakenly assumes it can outlive a first strike or an adversary would not resort to nuclear options in a chaotic escalation. Russia already considers the encroachment of NATO on its borders, its lethal targeting and weapons support, Ukraine’s bombing of infrastructure and ongoing strikes on cross-border towns, and continual incitement of Ukraine to escalate the war as an existential threat. That sentiment resonates across Russia even more so following the recent revelation that the U.S. and Norway were responsible for an act of war against Russia by destroying the Nordstream pipeline as an act of economic war against Germany and the E.U. China voted at the U.N. today in favor of an investigation into the Nordstream blasts following a finger-wag from Blinken to not provide lethal aid to Russia.

 

 

Adding more fuel to Ukraine’s burning territory that’s casually referred to as NATOstan by pedestrian punditry, Biden landed in Kyiv today with the Kremlin’s permission before continuing to Poland for an opinion powwow with the so-called Bucharest Nine that follows last week’s dog park lovefest at the 2023 Munich Security Conference. 

UK Prime Minister at the Munich Security Conference – Feb. 20

 

Moscow downplays significance of Biden’s visit to Kyiv… “U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that the U.S. notified Moscow of Biden’s visit to Kyiv shortly before his departure from Washington ‘for deconfliction purposes’ in an effort to avoid any miscalculation that could bring the two nuclear-armed nations into direct conflict. ‘Everyone knows that if Russia said that it wouldn’t hit Kyiv during a visit of some statesmen there, it means this will never happen, because we are the ones who keep their word, those who are on the side of the good and the civilized,’ pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov said in a political talk show. The deputy head of Russia’s Security Council and former president, Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Biden had received ‘safety guarantees and that Biden ‘pledged allegiance to the neo-Nazi regime’ and promised it more weapons… State TV journalist Andrei stated: ‘Will this visit influence the final outcome of the war? No. Absolutely not’… Political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya said the Kremlin will view Biden’s visit as ‘yet one more piece of evidence that the U.S. has completely bet on Russia’s strategic defeat in the war, and that the war itself has irrevocably turned into a war between Russia and the West.’” – Caledonian Record, Feb. 20

Russia reacts to Biden’s visit to Kyiv – Sky News, Feb. 20

 

Earlier this month, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his concern over the war’s direction. The prospect for peace continues to deteriorate and he said “the chances of further escalation and bloodshed keep growing… I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war – it’s doing so with eyes wide open.” A respected think tank within the U.S. military-industrial complex agrees and advised peace before a NATO ally or decision-making center is hit with conventional munitions or nuke-tipped hypersonic missiles.

A recent report from the RAND Corporation advised the Biden administration to seek an end to the war in Ukraine as soon as possible… “Take active steps to bring both sides to the negotiating table… RAND, which houses one of the world’s leading defense policy think tanks, says the U.S. cannot support an extended conflict in Ukraine while devoting the resources necessary to other pressing foreign policy issues, like protecting Taiwan from China… The most likely pathway toward direct NATO involvement may be an accidental strike on NATO territory, which is increasingly likely the longer the war rages on… There are no signs the Biden administration is intending to pursue these steps. Regular tranches of aid continue to be announced from the Pentagon and State Department, with the same ‘as long as it takes’ response… Biden is seemingly still content to leave Ukraine in the drivers’ seat as the one-year mark is days away.” – Daily Caller, Feb. 19

I’m not a history buff, but a little due diligence provides a prescient insight into today’s conflict in Ukraine vs. why the island of Formosa (aka Taiwan) was not invaded for a launchpad into Japan in WW2. It’s the same reason China will not conduct an outright invasion of Taiwan today but instead implement a naval blockade of the island, which they practiced when Pelosi dropped in for a visit last year. Logistics and Taiwan’s mountainous terrain were decisive factors in taking Iwo Jima and Okinawa in WW2.

Did the Allies (or at least the US) in 1944 have enough resources for an invasion of both the Philippines and Taiwan?… “Theoretically yes, but Taiwan wasn’t a fight we really wanted or needed at that point. We controlled the Luzon Strait, thus cutting Japan off from the southern resources she conquered in 1942. Taiwan’s mountainous terrain is well suited for defense. Think Peleliu on steroids but with less heat and mostly not supported by naval bombardment. There’s a reason the CCP hasn’t invaded Taiwan despite their 70+ years of bluster.” – CH Crawley on Quora

 

Luzon Versus Formosa… “One of the thorniest problems of strategic planning for the war against Japan was to decide whether the principal objective of drives that had brought the Allies into the western Pacific should be Luzon or Formosa. The decision was made by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff… They made it after long debate and careful study of the views of the commanders in the Central and Southwest Pacific theaters. Among the considerations that determined their choice… logistical factors played the major role… they had to take into account the commitments and progress of the Allies in other theaters, and particularly in Europe. It was a decision in global strategy… By the end of September 1944 almost all the military considerations-especially the closely interrelated logistical problems concerning troops and timing-had weighted the scales heavily in favor of seizing Luzon, bypassing Formosa, forgetting about a port on the China coast, and jumping on to Okinawa… General MacArthur would launch the invasion of Luzon on or about 20 December and instructed Admiral Nimitz to execute the Iwo Jima and Okinawa operations on the dates he had proposed… From the beginning of the Luzon versus Formosa debate they had believed the seizure of Formosa and a port on the south China coast-bypassing Luzon-to be the best strategy the Allies could follow in the western Pacific. In the end, however, the Joint Chiefs had had to face the fact that the Allies could not assemble the resources required to execute that strategy, at least until after the end of the war in Europe. They could not seriously consider delaying the progress of the war in the Pacific until Germany collapsed.” – Command Decisions / Chapter 21 by Robert Ross Smith

Fast-forward to the present day and Russia is well-positioned to sweep across eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River at a moment’s notice, but only after Bakhmut is fully captured, which is very close at hand. Russia’s Navy also has hypersonic Zircon missiles stationed in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean. Its land-based supply chain stretches deep into Russian territory for its manufacturing base and has an unlimited supply of raw materials and the oil and gas necessary to keep its population in war mobilization mode indefinitely. Western leaders are in somewhat of a panic and are having numerous meetings about meetings. Maybe NATO has a WW3 “shock and awe” event planned, or maybe not.

February 21st is an important day for Russia this year and possibly the world. Putin is slated to make a statement tomorrow (full speech w/translation via SkyNews) that will broadcast simultaneously across all 12 time zones in the country and all available media outlets. The last time this happened was one year ago, a few days before the special military operation was launched into Ukraine that blunted a planned advance by Ukraine’s military. Buckle up savvies, be prepared, pray, and stay out of the way if you can because anything goes as per billboards in Moscow that say: “Moscow is preparing for tomorrow’s historic day. There will be no turning back.”

If you’re not up to speed on events that unfolded during this war, consider a review of the “Little Green Men” series anthology for Part I-XI.

Metallica – Harvester Of Sorrow – Live in Moscow, Russia (1991)

 

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TraderStef on Twitter, Gettr / Website: TraderStef.com