Just under three years ago, I penned my view on the subtle difference between a civil war and a revolution. It’s spooky that we are approaching Halloween in 2023 and I felt compelled to opine on the current dystopian clusterfuck after closing Part 1 with the following:
“I think that most of us understand that everything we have gone through is just an introduction to much larger events in the not too distant future. My advice is to prudently align your investment portfolio and prep, pray, and stay out of the way.” – TraderStef, Oct. 2020
Concerns about civil unrest with revolutionary undertones were covered in “Global Unrest Underway Amid Net-Zero Autocracy – Part 2” published in Oct. 2022. Here are a few excerpts to consider:
“Massive protests are erupting across all of Europe due to out-of-control inflation, net-zero green energy policy, NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, and the European Union’s sanction policies against Russia that have thrown an energy crisis and Dark Age winter into Europe’s lap. The E.U. is on the brink of deindustrialization… Americans now owe nearly $1 trillion in revolving debt as inflation-slammed consumers keep piling on more credit card debt, personal savings are back to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis, 50% have given up saving for retirement because of inflation… the American Dream for first-time homebuyers has become a myth since few can afford the prices, and consumer sentiment remains in record-low territory… a whopping 79% of Americans believe the country is ‘out of control’ ahead of the midterm elections.”
Every issue on the domestic and geopolitical front has worsened. A comprehensive update on all topics covered in those two articles and subsequent writings would be an exercise in futility. Today, I will briefly bring attention to a few salient issues that may or may not dominate legacy media headlines but do point to an ominous conflagration of events unfolding at our doorstep. A misunderstanding of what risk management entails is that it’s not only about numbers and economic data. It’s more of a process of focusing on trends that evolve over months or years before the general public gets wind of circumstances that will eventually impact them for good or bad.
Let’s begin with Gerald Celente’s latest Trends Journal published this week. Topics I planned to cover are also in the contents of this issue. Here’s the opening salvo:
“Stroll through city streets, and what catches your eye? Countless individuals engrossed in their screens and totally detached from the world around them. The very smartphones designed to connect us have become ‘dumbphones’ that disconnect the masses from the reality of life around them. And as we have warned in one of our Top Trends of 2023, ‘AI, We Own You,’ generations are preoccupied in a meaningless TikTok world, oblivious to the impending socioeconomic and geopolitical storms brewing across the global landscape.”
My list for today’s rant:
The Border Crisis
The southern border of the U.S. is out of control vs. a narrative that Capitol Hill apparatchiks or the head of Homeland Security (DHS) would have you believe.
When Biden Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre claimed in late August that Joe Biden “has done more to secure the border to deal with this issue of immigration than anybody else,” she was immediately exposed as a liar. Millions of illegal immigrants have crossed the southwest border since 2021, and the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data for encounters does not reflect illegal aliens who enter the U.S. undetected. Convicted and violent criminals, gang members, and potential terrorists are slipping by in droves. In August 2023, the number of families crossing the southern border reached an all-time high. Verified reports show that violent criminals from around the world continue to pose as innocent refugees seeking asylum, and it’s a fact that large sections of the border are purposely left wide open by order of DHS. The border with Canada has also been breached. New York Mayor Eric Adams was finally forced to face reality at a town hall meeting last week. Unfortunately, like his leftist bedfellows in other major cities across the country, he blames everyone else for not doing their part despite promoting NYC as a “sanctuary city” in the past.
NYC Mayor Adams warns migrant crisis will ‘destroy’ the city – NYP, Sep. 7
Tucker Carlson: ‘Democracy Isn’t Functioning’ – TheDCShorts, Sep. 11
The Crime Wave
An epidemic of crime has been spreading across the U.S. since the runup to the 2020 election that includes flash mob robberies on a daily basis, petty crimes, homelessness, public debauchery, and the emerging threat of zombie-like (video) drug abusers who are roaming the streets of lawless metropolises. The crime wave phenomenon is also populated by the unprecedented flow of criminal illegal immigrants. This situation not only causes trauma to those who witness flash mobs or are directly impacted by petty crime but also results in skyrocketing expenses for companies amid higher inflation for consumers who already face an increased cost of living. As noted in Loss Prevention Magazine, each flash mob looting event costs retailers roughly $700,000 for every billion dollars in sales.
This summer of thieves is not only targeting high-end luxury stores. The dollar store chains are experiencing an elevation in shoplifting that’s telling of how terrible the economic situation is. Vengeful looting and thievery by certain demographics under the guise of getting what feel they deserve has evolved into organized crime syndicates, which includes foreign cartels and domestic gangs. In some instances, independent store owners and good Samaritans have had enough and are fighting back.
Robbery Gone Wrong, 7-Eleven Thief Beaten By Owner – Fox News, Aug. 9
$100,000 worth looted in Nordstrom flash mob robbery – CGTN, Aug. 13
Commercial Real Estate
The implosion of commercial real estate (CRE) is a slow train wreck that’s gaining speed as we approach 2024. If you’re not familiar with the credit crisis brewing in that sector, consider reading the “Implosion of Commercial Office Space Has Begun – Part 3: Fire Sale,” published on July 20. The crime wave epidemic of flash mob robberies is contributing to the growing shutdown of small and large retail stores and mixed-use buildings in major cities. The once posh Beverly Hills is now littered with closed storefronts. The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index for August dropped 0.6% to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average. Vacancy rates in the office space sector are at the heart of a CRE crisis where the loan payoff rate has sunk below 70%.
“That’s a sign of mounting stress in the estimated $3.2 trillion U.S. office market as landlords with typical 10-year property loans face tighter credit conditions and higher rates as a wall of debt comes due… The payoff rate is based on a six-month average for office loans financed in Wall Street’s commercial mortgage backed securities market. Late repayments don’t guarantee a borrower will default but often signal that debt relief, a default or a foreclosure is possible… The Federal Reserve’s inflation fight also has short-term rates at a 22-year high, raising the costs of everything from mortgages to corporate debt becoming more expensive. Furthermore, many property owners were required only to pay interest each month on mortgages financed by Wall Street, but not principal, resulting in big balloon payments when the debt comes due.” – MarketWatch, Sep. 6
Millions Will Lose Their Money Because of This – Gerald Celente, Sep. 4 (timestamp 35:55 to end)
U.S. Debt, Biden’s Money Laundering, and Impeachment
In early August, Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating. It cited rising debt at the federal, state, and local levels and a “steady deterioration in standards of governance” over the past two decades. Due to the continuation of unlimited debt accumulation (National Debt Clock) and political chaos in D.C., I suspect that more downgrades are in the cards as another government shutdown threat is brewing this month. There’s $7.6 trillion of publicly held U.S. government debt that matures in next 12 months. The process of de-dollarization is also accelerating among the BRICS+ family of countries that are moving away from the dollar hegemony and conducting international trade payments with their own national currency and hoarding gold. Average Joe is clueless about “The Greater Financial Crisis of 2024” (via Jim Rickards) on the horizon and its consequences, and only a minute percentage of the population is accumulating gold and silver as a safe haven to maintain the value of their capital. The following two videos sum up the current political situation in D.C. while interest on the national debt continues to skyrocket, M2 money supply is plunging toward a level not seen since the Great Depression, and a wall of corporate debt is coming due over the next two years.
Rep. Gaetz Launches Assault On McCarthy As Speaker – Forbes, Sep. 12
Rep. Waltz: Impeachment ‘evidence falling out of the woodwork’ – Fox Business, Sep. 12
The 2024 Election
I think everyone is aware of the goat rodeo we’re witnessing and game theory debates point to “Hillary’s 2016 loss as a bigger shock to the Washington DC deep state Blob than Donald Trump’s victory.” Many well-informed individuals and retired military brass with impeccable credentials have opined that there may not be a 2024 election due to geopolitical and financial chaos, as more voices call on Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential election. With that said, there’s a wildcard in the horse race that’s speaking truth to power at a level that even Vivek Ramaswamy has not matched.
RFK Jr. Telegraphs Threat to Vacate Democrat Party Plantation – Run Third Party… “The Democrat Party has a latent disaster on its hand vis a vis one RFK Jr. On the one hand, they are fully dedicated to sabotaging his campaign. Under no circumstances whatsoever will he be permitted to win the nomination. Even if he had 80%+ support from the electorate, the sick truth is that party leadership (influenced by the consultant and donor classes) would rather lose with Brandon than win with RFK Jr. because of what he’s liable to do to the Deep State and D.C. largesse were he ever to assume office. It would be a proverbial bloodbath for the administrative state and all of the grifters who feed on it. On the other hand, they need to keep RFK Jr. within the Democrat Party fold because if he were to go rogue and run third party — which he, frankly, should have been doing all along — it would be a veritable death knell for the Brandon entity’s prospects in 2024, which are wafer-thin as it is.” – PJ Media, Sep. 12
Douglas Macgregor & PBD discuss Ukraine/WW3 and U.S. Politics – Jun. 29 (timestamp 1:52:50 to end)
Oil and Inflation
You have probably noticed the sudden spike in the cost of gasoline since early July, which is a warning signal that inflation is creeping back. The Biden administration’s Bidenomics game of draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is no longer a viable option after a drawdown to a 40-year low, which was in response to the Ukraine war escalation in early 2022 to bring down inflation in sync with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at unprecedented speed. As the cost of all forms of fuel derived from oil rise, so does everything else. The price for a barrel of oil is currently trading at $90 and will likely exceed $100 as we ring in the new year, but that’s not enough to bring Biden to his senses because he canceled more oil leases in Alaska last week.
U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI) YoY % Change: Jun. 2022, 9.1%; Jul., 8.5%; Aug., 8.3%; Sep., 8.2%; Oct., 7.7%; Nov., 7.1%; Dec., 6.5%; Jan. 2023, 6.4%; Feb., 6.0%; Mar., 5.0%; Apr., 4.9%; May, 4.0%; Jun., 3.0%; Jul., 3.2%; Aug., 3.7% (second straight increase).
The Oil Market Hasn’t Felt The Full Impact Of Saudi Arabia’s Cuts Yet… “On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia said it would extend its 1 million bpd cut through December. The move reinforces ‘the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets,’ the Kingdom says. Russia also extended its 300,000 bpd export cut until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia could be able to single-handedly tighten the market in the fourth quarter, even without the help of other OPEC+ producers, if it keeps export levels as low as it did in August.” – OilPrice.com, Sep. 8
Guns and the Second Amendment
They’re coming after your inalienable right to bear arms for self-defense in a twisted form to circumvent gun control legislation. New Mexico Governor Michelle Grisham (D) suspended open and concealed carry firearms based on a “temporary public health emergency.” Her decision came as violent crime in the Albuquerque metropolitan area spirals out of control. Failed justice reforms and open immigration policies were not a topic of discussion in her decree.
“It’s inexcusable that New Mexico has the second highest violent crime rate in the country. This is due to a series of problems: we have lax laws, soft judges, and we don’t support our law enforcement officers.” – Stefani Lord, NM State Rep.
Law-abiding citizens are being stripped of their constitutional right as armed criminals continue roaming the streets. I’m glad I live in New Hampshire. Residents of New Mexico have taken to the streets while armed in protest of their tyrannical government, lawmakers in the state have called for Grisham’s impeachment, and the Bernalilllo County Sheriff said “It’s unconstitutional and we will not enforce it.” The Constitution and Bill of Rights were not a suggestion, so do not comply.
2nd Amendment Threat – New Mexico Gov a Tyrant – Judge Napolitano, Sep. 12
It’s appears that U.S. mRNA fanatics and health bureaucrats on a one-way trip to Nuremberg 2.0 have made their worst decision yet despite the settled science. If you’re still brainwashed and think you need a jab, want a booster, or believe masking prevents transmission, peruse my pandemic anthology along with links to my latest Twitter threads in bold and wake up before the Gestapo attempts another shutdown with illegal mandates. The G20 leaders have agreed to a plan this week to impose digital currencies (CBDC) and digital IDs that will include the implementation of a vaccine passport for their respective populations. Governments will use the system to monitor peoples’ spending, create a social credit score, and crush dissent on numerous issues via the censorship-industrial complex.
If you’re not up to date on NATO’s proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, consider reading the “Surge of ‘Little Green Men,’ and Metal is Poised to Strike – Part XV: Z’s End,” published on July 17, and its ongoing Twitter thread. Ukraine needs to face reality. Here is what Putin had to say this week about prospects for peace talks with Ukraine:
Ruble exchange rate and conditions for peace talks with Ukraine — Putin’s speech at EEF… “If the United States thinks that Ukraine is ready for talks, let them (the Kiev regime) cancel the ban on negotiations imposed by a decree from the Ukrainian President by which he prohibited himself and all others from conducting negotiations. Russia can’t stop hostilities if it’s repelling an enemy counteroffensive. From every side, the people we talk to, those who are mediating or would like to mediate, say to me, are you ready to cease hostilities? But how can we cease hostilities if the other side is conducting a counteroffensive? What are we supposed to do? They will counterattack, and we will say, we are standing down? We are not Trotskyists. As a result, Ukraine is sustaining big losses in manpower – some 71,500 people since the beginning of (Ukraine’s June counteroffensive) the operation.” – TASS, Sep. 12
If you’re procrastinating about getting your financial house and food pantry in order, don’t waste any more time. It will get worse before it gets better. We’re in a low-intensity civil war environment, on the cusp of a political revolution, supply chains remain vulnerable, and WW3 is brewing.
Oliver Anthony – I Want To Go Home
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Headline Collage Art by TraderStef