On the first day of December, Vista Outdoor Vice President of Sales Brett Nelson announced that substantial price increases for ammunition and primers are in the pipeline. Newsweek and Fenix Ammunition confirmed the authenticity of Brett’s letter. Manufacturers impacted include but are not limited to Remington, Alliant Powder, CCI, Federal, HEVI-Shot, and Speer. Retail consumers can keep track of ammo prices by caliber at AmmoPricesNow.com.
- Handgun and 22LR/Shorts: +1-5% (Primer +5%)
- Rifle, Shotshell, and WMR/HMR: +1-7% (Primer +5%)
- Alliant Powder: +10%
Alliant’s 10% price increase for smokeless powder is due to limited availability. Price hikes impact the cost of gunpowder and all components used in the production of ammunition. A scarcity of resources like brass, bullets, powder, and primers creates additional demand. With shortages likely to expand in 2024, expect to see lowered production by manufacturers, extended waiting times for delivery, asymmetric availability of calibers and brands, increased rationing, and the lack of seasonal sale incentives going forward. Industry experts are anticipating that extended military support commitments are going to lead to a tight future for ammunition availability.
The only U.S.-based manufacturer of black powder is GOEX.
“In 1802, E.I. Du Pont de Nemours broke ground on his original black powder plant along the Brandywine River in Delaware. To meet the growing demand for black powder, E.I. Du Pont de Nemours began construction on the Belin Plant in Pennsylvania and produced the first batches of black powder in 1912. The Belin Plant supplied military black powder during World War I, World War II, and the Korean and Vietnam conflicts. In the early 1970’s, the Belin Plant became a part of GOEX. GOEX continued to supply black powder for Military and Industry and for a growing Sporting interest. In 1997, GOEX moved to Minden, Louisiana to continue the tradition of manufacturing fine quality black powder. Today, GOEX manufactures black powder used for sporting applications such as civil war re-enactments and flint lock firearms, and is a vital component for industrial and military applications. It remains as the only U.S. manufacturer of black powder.”
Vista Outdoor is donating 1 million rounds of ammunition in support of Ukraine in its war with Russia, and that will impact near-term inventory. NATO has made substantial investments into ammo to help meet global military demands that were first fueled by Ukraine. We now also have a war between Israel and Hamas that may escalate into a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. NATO invested $1.5 billion in 2023 to enhance ammo production and stockpiles for its member states and has thus far awarded $2.6 billion in contracts for 2024. Those commitments create ripple effects in domestic consumption as increased demand generates scarcity and causes manufacturers to struggle. Government demands to procure resources in times of war lead to ammunition and gunpowder factories shifting their focus to fulfill military contracts at the expense of civilian demands.
Shaky US Defense Supply Chain Strained by Military Aid Demands… “Between Kyiv’s war with Moscow dragging on, the latest conflict in the Middle East, and shortcomings in the defense supply chain, the US may be confronting shortages of bullets — and missiles, rockets, and artillery shells… Take the black powder that’s a necessary ingredient for many of the artillery shells that the US has been sending to Ukraine. In all of the US, there’s just one factory that makes it… The US military still needs to make sure it has enough ammunition to go around. John Ferrari, a retired major general whose 32-year career included overseeing such equipment, dealt with this in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. ‘I’ve seen that scared look in everybody’s face that we actually have to go fight and we don’t have what we need’… Now, he worries that the current trend for the defense budget along with limited production capacity means it would be roughly a decade before the US would be ready for a battle.” – Bloomberg, Dec. 7
Ukraine & Israel wars spiking ammo prices in US… “With the wars in Ukraine and Israel gobbling up gunpowder and other elements of ammunition, the prices of ammo for hunters and plinkers in America are about to shoot up.” – Washington Examiner, Dec. 8
Retail consumers typically respond to rising costs and potential shortages by panic buying or outright hoarding. Similar situations have arisen in recent years with mass shootings in the news, the 9/11 terrorist attack, a pandemic panic, new gun control laws in specific states or anticipation of additional federal legislation, increased self-defense purchases due to rising crime rates and social unrest, and the current invasion of our nation’s border that has the U.S. Senate demanding action by Biden to mitigate his self-imposed migrant crisis and enforce existing immigration laws. Gun ownership is at a record high on the heels of the above-mentioned issues that elicit an amplified demand for ammunition. Data compiled by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) shows that 2023 had the third-best November on record for firearm sales, the 52nd month straight to see more than a million background checks, and Black Friday smashed all previous records. The number of NICS checks is one of the most reliable gauges of gun sales because new gun sales and some private sellers must go through NICS by federal law.
Black Friday gun sales smash record… “Sales of firearms, led by handguns, broke the previous Black Friday record last week, a continuation of the nation’s backlash to growing violent crime and liberal calls for gun grabs. The FBI said it completed 214,913 background checks on Friday, up over 11,000, or 5.5%, from the previous record set in 2017… With more than half of the public now living in households with guns, some have expected sales to slow. But concerns about crime and President Joe Biden’s demand for gun control and gun bans apparently sparked sales. NSSF spokesman Mark Oliva told Secrets that self-defense is a driving force, not just preservation of Second Amendment rights… Washington, like other cities, has seen a surge in violent crimes, such as carjackings, and many of the crimes are being committed by teenagers. The city has taken little action to stop the crime wave… People are not waiting for government officials to protect them.” – Washington Examiner, Dec. 13
Hold on to your gold and silver bullion, beans, and bullets because taxation and gun control laws do not stop criminals or the people’s desire for freedom and liberty. Take note of apparatchiks like Senator Elizabeth Warren who is rabidly pursuing the “Ammunition Modernization and Monitoring Oversight (AMMO) Act” that’s pending on Capitol Hill. Blue states are working around Supreme Court rulings to restrict your inalienable Second Amendment right to bear arms for self-defense and counter government tyranny and townships across the country are forming militias and/or declaring Second Amendment sanctuary counties.
Arm yourself with must-have information and charts to silence hoplophobic (fear of guns) argument trees about guns, gun crime, and gun control myths at The Truth About Guns, Gun Facts, Open Carry, and HandGunLaw Websites. There are still patriots in elected government positions like the following sheriff in Florida who will defend your inalienable rights.
Sheriff Woods: ‘Bad guy is going to get a gun no matter what’ – FoxNow, Apr. 7 (up to the 13-minute timestamp)
Here is Elizabeth Warden’s (pun intended) shortlist from her AMMO Act:
- Create a national permit to buy a firearm
- Establish a nationwide gun registry
- Institute a national “Red Flag Gun Seizures” law
- Ban virtually every semi-automatic rifle
- Make it a felony to buy a “high capacity” magazine
- Tax guns at 30% and ammo at 50%
- Gun rationing and jail for buying more than 1 gun per month
- Force you to always lock up your firearms
- Criminalize the sale of guns to adults under 21
- Ban firearm suppressors
Traders and investors should keep an eye on the following firearm-related stocks sorted by this week’s volume of shares traded. The list includes the month of their most recent high in price.
- $DKS: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc (No In-Store Guns and Ammo) – Mar. 2023
- $POWW: Ammo, Inc. – Jun. 2021
- $ASO: Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. – Apr. 2023
- $SWBI: Smith & Wesson – Jun. 2021
- $SPWH: Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. – Fall 2021
- $VSTO: Vista Outdoor Inc. – Jan. 2022
- $BGFV: Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. – Nov. 2021
- $RGR: Sturm Ruger & Company Inc. – Jun. 2021
Here is a list of articles related to firearms I’ve penned since 2019:
- Gun Sales Might Spike
- Patriots Vs. U.S. House Impeachment of POTUS on Stalin’s Birthday
- Live Free or Die
- A Revolution is Afoot and Masquerading as Civil War – Part 1 & 2
- Firearms to Live Free or Die by Were Not Shrugged in 1774 & 2021
- Firearms to Live Free or Die Will Not Be Shrugged Off in 2023
Civil War – Official Trailer, Movie Release in 2024
Oliver Anthony – I Want To Go Home
Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan