What a wild ride and historic April for gold, and a price consolidation is taking shape that mirrors seasonality to build support for a potential summer rally. Silver plunged into a Diving Board pattern two days after the Mar. 31 analyses, and an explosive buy-the-dip experience spiked gold to a $3,500 all-time high (ATH) following President Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs, his berating of “always too late” Jay Powell at the Fed for not lowering interest rates, recurring issues that impede peace negotiations on warfronts, and more fraudulent debt created by deep state government apparatchiks unearthed by DOGE.

“After a lifetime of unelected bureaucrats stealing your paychecks, attacking your values, and trampling your freedoms, we’re stopping their gravy train, ending their power trip, and telling THOUSANDS of corrupt, incompetent, and unnecessary deep state bureaucrats, YOU’RE FIRED!” – President Trump, Apr. 29

Let’s move on to an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook for Spring 2025” published (X thread) on Mar. 31, a link garden in chronological order of select economic data and precious metals commentary, a technical analysis on gold and silver spot charts, and end with a rant by Jan Skoyles on why gold is in revaluation mode with a much higher ATH on the horizon.

“We’re in a dangerous environment replete with unknown risk for better or worse, and gold is thriving on existential crises while it mirrors seasonality patterns in a secular bull phase… Rising Wedges typically telegraph an imminent pullback so stay alert if you are swinging paper positions… but the dollar is threatening to fall further in a bearish trend since January.” – TraderStef

• Jim Rickards: Trump to unlock $150 trillion trust fund hidden for 161yrs – Yahoo Finance
• Trump and Fate of the Dollar, What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? – Jim Rickards
• BMG CEO predicts gold to reach $4,000 USD per ounce by end of 2025 – WP
• China’s Gold Reserves Going Through the Roof – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• White House Exempts Precious Metals from Reciprocal Tariffs – Coin & Bullion Assoc.
• Spot gold spiked above $3,110-oz after ISM Services PMI falls March – Kitco
• Dow nosedive wipes out $3.1 trillion on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – NYP
• Manufacturing companies moving to US avoiding tariffs – Armstrong Economics
• Traders bet Fed will cut rates up to 4 times this year to bail out economy – CNBC
• Germany considers withdrawing 1,200-ton gold stockpile from US – The Telegraph
• Powell sees tariffs raising inflation, Fed waiting before any rate cuts – CNBC
• Gold and silver rushed to COMEX from abroad ahead of tariffs – Ole Hansen

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Breaks Down Trump’s Tariff Plan, Fed, Fake News, DOGE, and Gold – Tucker Carlson, (full version), Apr. 4

 

• Bank of Poland Gold reserve +16.5 tons in March, at 496.81 tons – Wojciech
• Single tariff headline wipes $6 TRILLION in S&P 500 market cap – Kobeissi Letter

 

• Gold Manipulation? Tired of hearing the suppression bullshit – Armstrong Economics
• Retail has not entered the gold bull market yet – Jan Nieuwenhuijs

 

• The Return of Gold, evolution of international reserves 1950-2024 – Jan Nieuwenhuijs

 

• The World’s 10 Largest Silver Mines (2023) – Mining Visuals
• UBS tells investors to buy silver amid Trump tariff turmoil – Mining.com
• Fed: Potential Implications of Announced Tariffs for Monetary Policy – Neel Kashkari
• Trump announces 90-day tariff pause for at least some countries – CNBC
• US Equities Explode Higher As Trump Pauses Reciprocal Tariffs (Except China) – ZH
• ‘Buy the dip in gold’: Morgan Stanley, UBS, Deutsche Bank turn bullish – CNBC
• India considers gold, silver imports from US to bridge trade deficit – Hindustan Times
• Gold Soars, Dollar Crashes After China Hikes US Tariffs To 125% – ZH
• Gold surpasses $3,100, could climb even higher soon – Jim Rickards
• Goldman Sachs upgrades gold forecast again to $3,700 – Mining.com
• Goldman Puts $4,000 Gold on Agenda as Hunt for Havens Grows – Bloomberg
• When the gold price is soaring, we should all be afraid – The Telegraph
• Concerns about a U.S. asset exodus as Treasurys and dollar decline – CNBC
• Ray Dalio’s warns unsustainable debt, value of money, war, tariffs, chaos – NBC

 

• Gold fund net inflows at record $80 billion YTD as safe haven – BofA Research

 

• Global Trust Collapse Pushes Gold to Shocking $3,300 High – Scottsdale Mint
• Central Banks purchased record 1000 tons a year since 2021 – In Gold We Trust

 

• Are Gold And Silver Waving a US Recession Flag – Bloomberg
• Trump: Fed Chair ‘Always Too Late & Wrong’ on interest rates – CNBC
• South American Cartels Now Make More Money Off Gold Than Cocaine – NYSun
• Silver could finally be a better investment opportunity than gold – MarketWatch
• Trump vs Powell: Gold-Backed Sound Money Plan Revealed – Jerusalem Post
• Depression Cycle Arrives in 2025 & 2026 – Charles Nenner (video)
• “He Who Has The Gold Makes The Rules” – President Trump

 

• ‘MR. TOO LATE‘: Powell is once again doing the wrong thing, expert says – Fox Business

 

• Last week, precious metals and government had the largest inflows – Liz Ann Sonders 

 

• Gold is Beating Everything – Barron’s
• JP Morgan see gold prices crossing $4,000/oz by Q2 2026 – Reuters
• Missed the Gold Rally? Go for Silver – WSJ
• Gold: The Everything Hedge – Jim Rickards
• Hedge funds & algos, not foreign investors dumping stocks – JPMorgan
• Goldman’s chief economist says dollar to fall further, here’s why – MarketWatch
• Did Someone Call the Comex Bluff on Gold and Silver? – Peter Schiff
• Keith Neumeyer: Silver’s Supply Crisis and Coming Price Surge – Money Metals
• Gold is the opposite of the Bitcoin effect right now – Schiff Sovereign
• China’s JD Gold Bar w/ highest sales volume ceased supply nationwide – Xiaojun
• China Is Considering Setting Up Overseas Gold Warehouses – GoldSeek
• Can Gold Reach $16,000? – Jan Nieuwenhuijs

 

• Is the ‘gold standard’ an option for America? – Judy Shelton on Fox Business (video)
• Homebuyer mortgage demand drops, uncertainty roils housing market – CNBC
• Saudi Arabia signals it can live with lower oil prices, sources say – Reuters
• China Is Days Late in Releasing Trade Data as US Shipping Slumps – gCaptain
• Stagflation Scenario Slam As Fed’s Fav Inflation Indicator at Four Year Lows – ZH
• Annualized GDP at -0.3% today, below expectations of +0.3% – Kobeissi Letter

 

• Oil pricing in stagflation-recession with decline in demand – Kobeissi Letter

 

 

Below is today’s technical analysis on gold, and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of algorithms, automated trading decisions, high-frequency trading (HFT) platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to the timing for layering core long-term positions or investing in physical bullion and coins. Slicing and dicing a daily chart provides a window into the next several days or couple weeks. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

Gold Spot Monthly Aug. 1999 Low – Apr. 11, 2025 Close: % Gain vs. Dollar, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, Russell…

 

Gold Spot daily chart as of Apr. 30, 2025 close…

 

 

Excerpt from the Jan. 28, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“There are no bearish indicators on the weekly or daily charts, both show an Alligator Tongue power trend. The chart is bullish and expect intermittent pullbacks to confirm any fresh support levels in blue sky territory.”

Excerpt from the Feb. 28, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The most interesting aspect about the price action and patterns that develop on a price chart are their predictive nature, but they don’t tell you what news event may be a contributing factor on the next move in either direction. It was clear in mid-February that a breather was due in gold after a wicked $350 rally extended too far beyond the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A bearish Rising Wedge began to form above the Up Channel’s topside trendline before an ATH of $2,956 on Monday, Feb. 24. On that day, news began to appear about a potential mining deal between Trump and Putin that could open a path toward renewed diplomacy and peace…The market viewed those negotiations as initiating a lasting peace deal for Ukraine which cooled the geopolitical risk factor that added fuel to the price of gold. It’s difficult to predict what the outcome will be after today’s Zelensky debacle at the White House. We’ll know more through next week. The weekly candlestick chart (not shown) printed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick but its DMI-ADX remains positive… Support is where the price closed today at $2,857 and the next levels are the 50 EMA and $2,790 lateral drawn from the high in October. The next blue sky Fibonacci Extension level is at $3,009. The chart remains bullish in the broader view of its secular bull phase since taking out the $1,921 ATH from 2011… near-term is neutral, but bearish if the 50 EMA is decisively breached on large sell Volume.”

Excerpt from the Mar. 31, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The $2,857 close mentioned in the previous analysis held as support and confirmed the lower trendline for a Broadening Top (aka Megaphone) pattern… It was left in the dust by a barrage of breaking news headlines. That rally morphed into a short-lived Pennant and supported another spike to a new all-time high (ATH) of $3,128 on Mar. 31 and $3,168 on Apr. 2. Gold has gained $591 since November’s low with a wider Up Channel forming… Healthy breathers have allowed Steady Eddie price action attain higher price points. Three Soldier daily candles in blue sky territory with solid buy Volume is crazy bull, but another breather and a run is preferred before mid-April seasonality threatens downside pressure until early summer. The DMI-ADX on the daily has stayed positive all year with increased buy Volume. A new set of Fibonacci Extensions identify price levels to watch as they develop into support and resistance zones in the future. Keep drawing those trendlines! The gold chart is still bullish, but stay frosty.”

My call for a lower dollar by charting the $DXY in the previous analysis has played out in spades and assisted gold with achieving a $3,500 ATH on Apr. 22.

“The dollar is threatening to fall further in a bearish trend since January.” – Mar. 31

Gold has gained $963 per ounce since November’s $2,537 low and last week’s ATH Plunger Candle, and closed in NY today at $3,288 within a Throwback that’s currently riding above the Up Channel’s topside trendline where there’s not much price support. Seasonality price action this time of year is typically an extended consolidation process until mid to late June, but any substantial news event or economic data could send it higher or lower sooner. More robust support is found at the 50 EMA and between the $3,170 and $3,230 laterals. Keep in mind that higher price points increase the volatility spread (especially in blue sky territory) as we venture into more $100+ days of paper trading opportunities.

The DMI-ADX remains in an upside power trend on the monthly and weekly charts, but the daily reflects some Throwback weakness which is still positive despite the erratic trading Volume. A new set of Fibonacci Extensions drawn from the Apr. 17 high identify price levels to watch as they develop into support and resistance zones in the future. Keep drawing those trendlines and laterals for future reference. The gold chart is bullish in the bigger picture, but stay frosty in the near term.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Apr. 30, 2025 close…

 

Excerpt from the Feb. 28, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Three business days after silver’s Jan. 24 close at $30.56, the price action spiked through $31 resistance and left behind the first stairstep. The rally continued and printed a high of $33.38 on Feb. 14 and $33.18 on Feb. 20, which solidified the second stairstep at $32.50. The subsequent Throwback tested support at the second stairstep and closed just above an Up Channel’s lower trendline, but that was breached on Feb. 24 when gold began its pullback. The price subsequently took out the $32.20 lateral support/resistance zone drawn back to May 2024, and closed below the 50 EMA today at $31.12 after testing support at the first stairstep when it printed a $30.79 low. The next levels of support are the 50% Fibonacci at $30.60 and $30 support/resistance. As noted in the previous analysis, the DMI-ADX was not primed for an explosive rally. The current pullback reverted the DMI-ADX from a choppy but positive trend into a negative trend with large sell Volume spikes. The 50 EMA breach could push silver lower if it does not recover sooner than later. The chart is neutral with a potential for more downside.”

Excerpt from the Mar. 31, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver’s most recent low was $30.79 in the Feb. 28 analysis, printed a high of $34.58 on Mar. 28, and closed at $33.88 on Apr. 2. Rising Wedges typically telegraph an imminent pullback so stay alert if you are swinging paper positions. October’s $34.85 Tweezer Top could become a new consolidation zone into spring and is a key price level where much less resistance develops after a break out. The DMI-ADX is still not primed for an explosive rally, but all pullbacks since December’s Double Bottom were heavily bought grinding the price higher. Silver looks bullish but is bucking above $32 and April seasonality favors silver. With gold going bananas and copper rising to new ATHs, silver will eventually trend higher at a quickened pace.”

Silver’s Diving Board price action in early April is what you get when combining mindless algorithms with high-frequency trading platforms that push prices up and down across all markets in microseconds. Within days of noting a bearish Rising Wedge in the previous analysis, silver plunged nearly $6 in three days to $27.97 (nailed $28 lateral support) due to stock market bubble margin calls on tariff news and China’s retaliatory response. The buy the dip crowd have rallied the price back to $33.66 on decent buy Volume and is just in time for a seasonal consolidation process. The price action closed today at $32.58 while riding above the 50 EMA and $32.30 lateral since Apr. 14, with a potential Ascending Broadening Wedge forming after Trump ripped the Fed Chair for not lowering interest rates.

The DMI-ADX has not been primed for an explosive rally and reverted to a negative trend this week. Volumes are erratic on the buy and sell side. Silver will eventually trend higher at a quickened pace after $35 is left in the dust. The chart is neutral.

Gold Hit $3,500: a revaluation is just beginning – Jan Skoyles, Apr. 24

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com