Positive news headlines on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine began last weekend and is a factor that’s contributing to the timely and expected breather in gold and silver over the past week. While penning today’s analyses, a tentative mining agreement with Russia that would restore diplomacy with the U.S. and bring peace to Ukraine is in serious jeopardy after a rare earth elements (REE) deal negotiated by President Trump with Zelensky failed to materialize during his visit to the White House. The initial live Q&A presser in the Oval Office imploded suddenly due to an argument initiated by Zelensky with VP Vance that was wrought by his public display of belligerence and disrespect.

“He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.” – The White House

Trump subsequently canceled today’s signing of the REE deal and press conference, stated that Zelensky can “come back when he is ready for peace,” took the REE deal off the table, and asked Zelensky to leave the White House. He is now begging to return to the White House. Let’s hope this unfortunate turn of events is rehabilitated before Ukraine’s meat grinder war spirals into a WW3 scenario.

‘Just say thank you’- Trump, Vance spar with Zelensky in tense meeting – Fox News, Feb. 28

 

Let’s move on to an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook for Mid-Winter 2024” published (X thread) on Jan. 26, a link garden to a selection of the latest economic data and precious metals commentary, a technical analysis on the gold and silver spot charts, and end with a Luke Gromen interview by Tucker Carlson where they take a deep dive into “Why the CIA Doesn’t Want You Owning Gold, & Is Fort Knox Lying About Our Gold Reserve.”

“Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States last Monday and gold investors have salivated over a price spike since mid-December that was $5 shy of breaching the October $2,790 all-time high (ATH) on Friday. Gold’s rally into the New Year mirrors its seasonality pattern and remains a proven safe-haven asset for retail investors and institutional hedges against geopolitical and economic risks. Gold appears to be reacting lately more so to Trump’s policy initiatives and how they may impact the domestic and global economy.” – TraderStef

• How Smaller-Sized Contracts Make Trading Gold More Accessible – CME, Jan. 2025
• UK faces gold shortage as traders send $82B to New York – New York Post
• The Secret Reason USA Wants Its Gold Back! It’s Not Tariffs – Scottsdale Mint
• Trump ok w/Fed holding interest rates steady, 10yr Treasury focus – CNBC, Feb. 2025
• Tight supply and strong demand pressure silver prices – AGBI
• London’s Gold Shortage: Symptom of Global Economic Anxiety – Peter Schiff
• Gold glitters as the unimaginable becomes imaginable – Financial Times
• Gold Lease Rates Explode as US Repatriation, Delivery Logistics Grow – ZH

• Gold Makes New All-time High as CITI Raises Price Target to $3300 – ZH
• Gold Hits Record in Volatile Session as Trump Fans Haven Demand – Bloomberg
• LBMA Addresses London Gold & Silver Shortage Concerns – GoldFix
• Chinese Banks Run Out of Gold as Soaring Prices Spark Buying Frenzy – YiCai
• Banks halt sales of silver bars amid soaring demand – The Korea Times
• Don’t Sleep On Silver – QTR’s Fringe Finance
• How U.S. Treasury Can Cash In Big Using Gold Revaluation Account – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says Trump’s goal is to abolish IRS – Fox
• Fed FOMC stuck in neutral watching how Trump policies play out – CNBC
• Wyoming Enacts Law to Establish Strategic Gold Reserve – Money Metals
• Deep State Threatens To Sell State Secrets If DOGE Not Nice To Them – The Federalist
• FBI NY Field Office Interfering with full release of Epstein files – Townhall
• Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator flashing danger again – CNBC
• “ICYMI, I’m requesting to audit gold at Fort Knox” – Rand Paul

• Open Letter to Trump: Don’t Be Fooled by Fort Knox “Auditors” – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• The Gold at Fort Knox Was Stolen from Americans – Mises Institute
• 1971 Decision suspended dollar convertibility to gold – Chatham House, Mar. 2022

“Trump and Musk going to Fort Knox to audit U.S. gold supply. Not sure if they’re flying with Pussy Galore. Only half the U.S. gold is there. The rest is at West Point and Denver. They’ll figure that out. A more important issue is how much gold is leased?” – Jim Rickards, Feb. 24

U.S. Gold Leased? Jim Rickards Explains The Right Of Rehypothecation – Bannon’s War Room, Feb. 26

 

Fort Knox Gold | Kentucky Life – KET, May 2014

 

A rare look inside (1974) the gold vault at Fort Knox – WCPO 9, Jul. 2018

 

 

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of algorithms, automated trading decisions, high-frequency trading (HFT) platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to the timing for layering core long-term positions or investing in physical bullion and coins. Slicing and dicing a daily chart provides a window into the next several days or a few weeks. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

Gold Spot daily chart as of Feb. 28, 2025 close…

 

Excerpt from the Dec. 31, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Gold consolidated along the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) through late November and early December before spiking back into the $2,720s during a coup and collapse of Syria’s government. A PPI report released on Dec. 12 indicated wholesale inflation rose more than expected which brought into question if the Fed’s Dec. 18 FOMC announcement would cut interest rates. The price action pulled back below the 50 EMA, pivoted upward after the Fed agreed on another quarter-point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range, but the FOMC’s ‘dot-plot’ indicated there may be fewer cuts in 2025 than previously projected. The price is printing higher lows since mid-November and a bullish Symmetrical Triangle is developing. The sooner the price rallies upward, the earlier upside seasonality can take hold in 1Q25. The DMI-ADX is trending laterally negative and is indecisive while the breadth in Volume is muted due to the holiday season. The chart is neutral near-term, but remains bullish within its renewed secular bull phase and likely to take out the October ATH in 2025.”

Excerpt from the Jan. 24, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The bullish Symmetrical Triangle that developed since mid-November was confirmed after an Up Channel on rising buy Volume drove a decisive break through the 50 EMA, lateral resistance at $2,650, and lastly the triangle’s topside trendline following a PPI inflation report considered dovish (December data was seen as bearish) sparked enormous buy Volume. Resistance at $2,720 was tapped the next day and a brief Throwback confirmed support at the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension level before slicing through the $2,720 lateral like butter after Trump’s inauguration day. A solid rally ensued until the price action was $5 shy of October’s $2,790 ATH on Friday and closed for the week at $2,772. There are no bearish indicators on the weekly or daily charts, both show an Alligator Tongue power trend on the DMI-ADX, and buy Volume remains steadily higher on the daily. Support is at the 50 EMA, laterals, and trendlines left behind this month. The near-term ATH blue sky Fibonacci Extension levels are in the $2,800s. The chart is bullish and expect intermittent pullbacks to confirm any fresh support levels in blue sky territory.”

The most interesting aspect about the price action and patterns that develop on a price chart are their predictive nature, but they don’t tell you what news event may be a contributing factor on the next move in either direction. It was clear in mid-February that a breather was due in gold after a wicked $350 rally since mid-December extended too far beyond the 50 EMA. A bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge began to form above the Up Channel’s topside trendline, and quickly morphed into a more bearish Rising Wedge before a blow off buy Volume spike printed an ATH of $2,956 on Monday Feb. 24. On that day, news began to appear about a potential mining deal between Trump and Putin that could open a path toward renewed diplomacy and peace that the Biden administration failed to pursue. On Feb. 25, headlines focused on an imminent deal between Trump and Zelensky for mining REEs in Ukraine. I believe those two events contributed to the price correction that began in earnest on Tuesday and fulfilled the need for a pullback and consolidation. Those negotiations may initiate a lasting peace deal for Ukraine and cooled the geopolitical risk factors that added fuel to the price of gold. It’s difficult to predict what the outcome will be after today’s debacle at the White House. We’ll know more as the weekend unfolds and see what the price action is at the open on Sunday evening and through next week.

The weekly candlestick chart (not shown) printed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick and its DMI-ADX remains in a positive trend. The DMI-ADX on the daily has begun to rollover with a potential cross into a negative trend, and sell Volume has increased with falling buy Volume. Support is where the price closed today at $2,857 and the next levels are the 50 EMA and $2,790 lateral drawn from the high in October. The next blue sky Fibonacci Extension level is at $3,009. The chart remains bullish in the broader view of its secular bull phase since taking out the $1,921 ATH from 2011, but near-term is neutral and would be considered bearish if the 50 EMA is decisively breached on large sell Volume.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Feb. 28, 2025 close…

 

Excerpt from the Dec. 31, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“After silver printed a Hammer Candle close at $30.19 on Nov. 28, the price action rallied to $32.20 resistance before the PPI inflation report. A subsequent pullback mirrored gold’s reaction and fell back below the 50 EMA. After a Dec. 18 interest rate cut, the price pivoted upward before Christmas from a $28.73 low but failed to retake $30. This week’s price action has revisited the previous low and closed today at $28.86. Since the Oct. 22 high, a bullish Falling Wedge developed and will remain in-play if the lower trendline is not decisively breached. The next level of support rests at $28. The DMI-ADX is in a negative power trend pattern, but the sell and buy Volume have trended downward since Trump was elected on Nov. 5. The chart is neutral until the 50 EMA is retaken on significant buy Volume as we shift into 2025.”

Excerpt from the Jan. 24, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver is underperforming compared to gold despite it mirroring gold’s ups and downs, but its technicals are slowly improving. The Falling Wedge’s topside trendline has been challenged for a week as the price action hovers above the 50 EMA at roughly $30.50. An Up Channel has taken hold since an Eve & Eve Double Bottom formed through the holidays and it won’t take much momentum to move the price action toward $31 and $32 resistance levels. Unfortunately, the potential for an explosive rally is not currently shown with the DMI-ADX trending sideways (indecisive), but do not lose sight of the strength building in the buy Volume department. The chart is bullish and requires some patience.”

Three business days after silver’s Jan. 24 close at $30.56, the price action spiked through $31 resistance and left behind the first stairstep. The rally continued and printed a high of $33.38 on Feb. 14 and $33.18 on Feb. 20, which solidified the second stairstep at $32.50. The subsequent Throwback tested support at the second stairstep and closed just above an Up Channel’s lower trendline, but that was breached on Feb. 24 when gold began its pullback. The price subsequently took out the $32.20 lateral support/resistance zone drawn back to May 2024, and closed below the 50 EMA today at $31.12 after testing support at the first stairstep when it printed a $30.79 low. The next levels of support are the 50% Fibonacci at $30.60 and $30 support/resistance.

As noted in the previous analysis, the DMI-ADX was not primed for an explosive rally. The current pullback reverted the DMI-ADX from a choppy but positive trend into a negative trend with large sell Volume spikes. The 50 EMA breach could push silver lower if it does not recover sooner than later, undertakes a consolidation, or potentially into a “bear trap” zone between $29-$30 before recovering. The chart is neutral with a potential for more downside.

Luke Gromen: Why CIA Doesn’t Want You Owning Gold, & Is Fort Knox Lying – Tucker Carlson, Feb. 25

 

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