A multilayered global chessboard is unfolding with unsustainable sovereign debt and derivatives, extensive money laundering through U.S. government departments and NGOs being exposed by DOGE.gov, the financial plumbing of a weaponized dollar facing multipolar hegemony, capital flight to avoid war and/or tariffs, advancing technology, securing energy resources, minerals, metals, borders, military positioning and logistics, and the geopolitics of diplomacy for peace or demonstrated strength to avert a continued escalation toward WW3. Not to mention the news cycle is traveling at warp speed.

Trump’s New World Order… “The goalposts of World War 3 have shifted. Rather than total victory and preserving the unipolar world order, the US is now focused on maximizing its power within the new multipolar landscape—while limiting the influence of its most formidable rivals: Russia, China, and their allies, including Iran.” – International Man

Meanwhile, a flood of gold bars began flowing into the U.S. last fall and attracts speculation about why a Fort Knox audit is on the horizon. Some pundits overlook the potential for sound money with gold-backed Treasury bonds or certificates, and reasons for the enormous buying binge since 2010 by nations, central banks, financial institutions, and retail plebes who stack silver histrionics while waiting for an elusive fugazzi squeeze. We’re in a dangerous environment replete with unknown risk for better or worse, and gold is thriving on existential crises while it mirrors seasonality patterns in a secular bull phase.

Trump, BIG PROBLEMS for Zelensky. NYT, Ukraine spoiled Biden victory over Russia – Alex Christoforou at The Duran, Mar. 31, 2025

 

Let’s move on to an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook for Late-Winter 2025” published (X thread) on Feb. 28, a link garden with select economic data and precious metals commentary, a technical analysis on the dollar, gold, and silver spot charts, and end with a Jim Rickards interview on Fort Knox & markets and take a mountain coaster ride in Switzerland.

“Positive news headlines on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine is a factor that contributed to the timely and expected breather in gold and silver… A presser in the Oval Office imploded suddenly due to an argument initiated by Zelensky with VP Vance that was wrought by his public display of belligerence and disrespect… Let’s hope this unfortunate turn of events is rehabilitated before Ukraine’s meat grinder war spirals into a WW3 scenario.” – TraderStef

• Treasury Convertible to Gold Instrument – Judy Shelton, (video) Jul. 2019
• Gold’s Historic Rally – Jim Rickards at the Daily Reckoning Feb. 2025
• Trump Makes US Copper Mining a Focus of Domestic Minerals Policy – Headline USA
• Copper on Verge of Bull Market—And That’s Great News for Silver – Money Metals
• Germany’s Merz pushes fiscal ‘bazooka’ but support in doubt – Reuters
• Silver Extends Advance on Weaker Dollar and Trade-War Worries – Bloomberg
• South Korea’s mint grapples with gold bar shortage, supply constraints – CNBC
• Gold Imports at Root of Record US Trade Gap Excluded From GDP – Bloomberg
• Is It Time for Sound Money? The Case for Gold – Newsmax 
• Australia’s non-monetary US gold exports skyrocket early 2025 – Mining.com.au

 

 

 

• Federal Reserve does not need to rush, can wait for greater clarity – Jay Powell
• Utah Adopts Constitutional Gold Currency – Jason Cozens (video)
• Most Above-Ground Silver Is Unavailable to Satisfy Demand – SilverSeek
• Largest gold bullion-smuggling uncovered in Hong Kong-Japan shipment – SCMP
• Ray Dalio warns U.S. debt could lead to ‘shocking developments’ – CNBC
• U.S. STOCKS JUMP, VIX TUMBLES AFTER COOL CPI INFLATION REPORT
• Kentucky Legislature Repeals Sales Taxes on Gold and Silver – Sound Money
• Repatriate Dutch gold stored in New York to your own soil before it is too late – FD

“In just 13 months, gold has added $7+ TRILLION of market cap, now worth a record $20+ TRILLION. If you combine the remaining 9 assets in the top 10, the total comes out to $19.6 trillion. Gold is worth more than the remaining top 10 assets COMBINED.” – Kobeissi Letter

• Gold hits $3,000 for first time on global growth fears – FT
• Bank of Montreal (BMO) gold to $4k and financial reset – Willem Middelkoop
• Gundlach Macro Outlook: “Not in My Neighborhood” – DoubleLine Capital (video)
• DoubleLine’s Gundlach Says Gold Soaring to $4,000 – Investing.com
• Gold pops above $3,000/oz for first time in historic safe-haven rally – Reuters
• Will Israel Strike Iran’s Nuclear Program in 2025? – Israel Radar
• Gold prices hit $3,000 for the first time as investors push the panic button – CNN
• Gold Near Record as US Growth Concerns Fan Haven Demand – Bloomberg
• Capital Flows Canada, Mexico, Europe – Armstrong Economics
• COMEX De-Lists Certain London Gold Contracts – Gold Trader
• FED INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 4.50% VS 4.50% PREVIOUS
• FED MED FORECAST NEXT 2 YRS: ACTUAL 3.125% (PREVIOUS 3.375%)

• The Fed’s Backdoor QE – Jim Rickards
• Utah has invested $60M of taxpayer money in gold — so far – Salt Lake Tribune
• Golden Road Out of the Debt Crisis, Gold Bonds or Certificates – New York Sun
• Trump Warns Fed To Cut Rates As Tariff Trouble Looms – ZH
• If you missed out on gold’s record run, take a look at silver – MarketWatch
• Near-term technical outlook remains bullish despite recent pullback – FXStreet
• ‘Gold is going to shine…’: Vedanta chief urges India to buy at $3k – Business Today
• Moody’s says US fiscal strength on course for continued decline – Reuters
• Spike in Gold Inventories Points to Another Large US Trade Gap – Bloomberg
• Goldman Sachs boosts end-2025 gold price outlook $3,100 to $4,200 – Investing.com
• Fed Reserve Posts Another Big Operating Loss in 2024, Your Problem – GoldSeek
• Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Trade – Bloomberg
• Trump and the Fate of the Dollar / What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? – Jim Rickards

• Gold surges to record high as US tariffs-levies loom – Yahoo Finance
• Putin Launches “Underwater Monster” Sub, Hypersonic Missile-Armed – EurAsian Times
• One of Putin’s limos engulfed in huge fireball on Moscow street – GBN
• European Union is preparing for war – El Pais
• Netanyahu says Israel open to Gaza talks if Hamas disarms – Xinhua
• Too Many Uncomfortable Things Are Converging – Howard Kunstler
• PCE Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected – CNBC

 

 

Below is today’s technical analysis on the dollar, gold, and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of algorithms, automated trading decisions, high-frequency trading (HFT) platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to the timing for layering core long-term positions or investing in physical bullion and coins. Slicing and dicing a daily chart provides a window into the next several days or few weeks. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

$DXY U.S. Dollar weekly chart as of Mar. 31, 2025 close…

The dollar is threatening to fall further in a bearish trend since January.

Gold Spot daily chart as of Mar. 31, 2025 close…

 

 

Excerpt from the Jan. 28, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The bullish Symmetrical Triangle that developed since mid-November was confirmed after an Up Channel on rising buy Volume drove a decisive break through the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), lateral resistance at $2,650, and lastly the triangle’s topside trendline following a PPI inflation report considered dovish (December data was seen as bearish) sparked enormous buy Volume. Resistance at $2,720 was tapped the next day and a brief Throwback confirmed support at the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension level before slicing through the $2,720 lateral like butter after Trump’s inauguration day. A solid rally ensued until the price action was $5 shy of October’s $2,790 ATH on Friday and closed for the week at $2,772. There are no bearish indicators on the weekly or daily charts, both show an Alligator Tongue power trend on the DMI-ADX, and buy Volume remains steadily higher on the daily. Support is at the 50 EMA, laterals, and trendlines left behind this month. The near-term ATH blue sky Fibonacci Extension levels are in the $2,800s. The chart is bullish and expect intermittent pullbacks to confirm any fresh support levels in blue sky territory.”

Excerpt from the Feb. 28, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The most interesting aspect about the price action and patterns that develop on a price chart are their predictive nature, but they don’t tell you what news event may be a contributing factor on the next move in either direction. It was clear in mid-February that a breather was due in gold after a wicked $350 rally since mid-December extended too far beyond the 50 EMA. A bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge began to form above the Up Channel’s topside trendline, and quickly morphed into a more bearish Rising Wedge before an ATH of $2,956 on Monday, Feb. 24. On that day, news began to appear about a potential mining deal between Trump and Putin that could open a path toward renewed diplomacy and peace that the Biden administration failed to pursue. On Feb. 25, headlines focused on an imminent deal between Trump and Zelensky for mining REEs in Ukraine. I believe those two events contributed to the price correction that began in earnest on Tuesday and fulfilled the need for a pullback and consolidation. The market viewed those negotiations as initiating a lasting peace deal for Ukraine which cooled the geopolitical risk factor that added fuel to the price of gold. It’s difficult to predict what the outcome will be after today’s debacle at the White House. We’ll know more through next week. The weekly candlestick chart (not shown) printed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick and its DMI-ADX remains in a positive trend. The DMI-ADX on the daily has begun to rollover with a potential cross into a negative trend, and sell Volume has increased with falling buy Volume. Support is where the price closed today at $2,857 and the next levels are the 50 EMA and $2,790 lateral drawn from the high in October. The next blue sky Fibonacci Extension level is at $3,009. The chart remains bullish in the broader view of its secular bull phase since taking out the $1,921 ATH from 2011, but near-term is neutral and would be considered bearish if the 50 EMA is decisively breached on large sell Volume.”

The $2,857 close mentioned in the previous analysis held as support and confirmed the lower trendline for a Broadening Top (aka Megaphone) pattern with lowered trading Volume. It was left in the dust by a barrage of breaking news headlines and a few are annotated on the chart. That rally morphed into a short-lived Pennant last week and supported another spike to a new all-time high (ATH) of $3,128 today. Gold has gained $591 since November’s low with a wider Up Channel forming since the Symmetrical Triangle was breached. Healthy breathers have allowed Steady Eddie price action attain higher price points. Three Soldier daily candles in blue sky territory with solid buy Volume is crazy bull, but another breather and a run is preferred before mid-April seasonality threatens downside pressure until early summer.

The DMI-ADX on the daily has stayed positive all year and resumed some vertical movement along with increased buy Volume since last week. A new set of Fibonacci Extensions identify price levels to watch as they become support and resistance zones in the future. Keep drawing those trendlines! The gold chart is still bullish, but stay frosty.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Mar. 31, 2025 close…

 

Excerpt from the Jan. 24, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver is underperforming compared to gold despite it mirroring gold’s ups and downs, but its technicals are slowly improving. The Falling Wedge’s topside trendline has been challenged for a week as the price action hovers above the 50 EMA at roughly $30.50. An Up Channel has taken hold since an Eve & Eve Double Bottom formed through the holidays and it won’t take much momentum to move the price action toward $31 and $32 resistance levels. Unfortunately, the potential for an explosive rally is not currently shown with the DMI-ADX trending sideways (indecisive), but do not lose sight of the strength building in the buy Volume department. The chart is bullish and requires some patience.”

Excerpt from the Feb. 28, 2025 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Three business days after silver’s Jan. 24 close at $30.56, the price action spiked through $31 resistance and left behind the first stairstep. The rally continued and printed a high of $33.38 on Feb. 14 and $33.18 on Feb. 20, which solidified the second stairstep at $32.50. The subsequent Throwback tested support at the second stairstep and closed just above an Up Channel’s lower trendline, but that was breached on Feb. 24 when gold began its pullback. The price subsequently took out the $32.20 lateral support/resistance zone drawn back to May 2024, and closed below the 50 EMA today at $31.12 after testing support at the first stairstep when it printed a $30.79 low. The next levels of support are the 50% Fibonacci at $30.60 and $30 support/resistance. As noted in the previous analysis, the DMI-ADX was not primed for an explosive rally. The current pullback reverted the DMI-ADX from a choppy but positive trend into a negative trend with large sell Volume spikes. The 50 EMA breach could push silver lower if it does not recover sooner than later. The chart is neutral with a potential for more downside.”

Silver’s most recent low was $30.79 in the Feb. 28 analysis, printed a high of $34.58 last Friday, and closed today at $34.06. Rising Wedges typically telegraph an imminent pullback so stay alert if you are swinging paper positions. October’s $34.85 Tweezer Top could become a new consolidation zone into spring and is a key price level where much less resistance develops after a break out.

The DMI-ADX is still not primed for an explosive rally, but all pullbacks since December’s Double Bottom were heavily bought grinding the price higher. Silver looks bullish but is bucking as new support builds above $32 and April seasonality favors silver. With gold going bananas and copper rising, silver will eventually trend higher at a quickened pace.

Mountain Coaster Oeschinensee Kandersteg Switzerland – The Flying Dutchman

 

Jim Rickards: Is the Gold Gone? Did the U.S. Treasury Lease it? – Daniela Cambone, Mar. 7

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com