The prospect of WW3 on our doorstep and/or civil unrest on the home front has not abated, a contentious 2024 presidential election cycle is slated to pick a popular vote winner in the next week and record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to skedaddle out of Dodge “fearing political and social unrest regardless of who wins,” the U.S. national debt spiked $473 billion in just three weeks, and gold continues to print new all-time highs (ATHs).

 

Let’s begin today with an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook for Fall 2024” (Twitter thread) published on Sep. 26, and what I believe was the most important post on X today that confirms the TaperCaper acceleration, a link garden of data points and commentary since the previous analyses, an updated technical analysis on the gold and silver spot charts, and close with a Peter Schiff interview on the Schwab Network and Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC where he laid out the U.S. national debt trainwreck and recommended gold.

“Gold continues to print new ATHs, and silver is tagging along for the ride. Our world is ablaze and the precious metals thrive on crises.” – TraderStef

“It is official, there are not enough buyers in the open market for US Treasuries, which need to be sold to cover the HUGE deficits (apparently). So, the Treasury is starting another round of Weimarization by printing and buying them themselves. That explains why the dollar is down” – Willem Middelkoop, Oct. 31

US TREASURY: WE EXPECT TO BUY UP TO $30 BLN IN OFF-THE-RUN SECURITIES FOR LIQUIDITY SUPPORT – Financial Juice, Oct. 30

• The Golden Tradition: Why Indian Families Invest In Gold – US Global Investors (video) 2023
• Zuckerberg among millionaires prepping & hoarding gold – US Sun, 2024
• Citibank Bullish on Silver, year-end target $35 and mid-2025 $38-$40 – Citi Viewpoint

• The Future of Gold: Will the Price Surge Continue? – OilPrice.com
• West Seeks to Finalize Using Frozen Russian Funds to Pay for War – Libertarian Institute
• Jim Rickards: The Treasury Should Buy Gold – Institutional Risk Analyst
• Decade-low tariff to boost seasonal Indian gold consumption – Nikkei Asia
• Charles Nenner From a Bunker in Israel, American Empire is Over – USA Watchdog (video)
• Nature healing JPY carry trades on back of Fed easing – Goldman’s Cirpan
• Cash & Silver keeps things moving in wake of Hurricane Helen – Shadow of Ezra
• Poland now has more gold reserves than the UK – Remix
• Project mBridge & “gold price insensitivity” a warning for US dollar – Southbank (video)
• Russia Buying Could Help Drive Silver to $50 and Beyond – Jesse Colombo
• Brien Lundin: Gold Could Double to 6k If Bull Acts Like Past Ones – Adam Taggart
• France Secretly Repatriated Gold Before Nixon Devalued Dollar – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Costco Gold Bars Are Selling Out Even As Prices Surge – Epoch Times
• The Gold Bull Cycle Has Just Begun – Jim Rickards
• The Federal Reserve may have pretty much just hit its 2% inflation target – CNBC
• Top 10 Countries That Bought the Most Gold in Past Decade – US Global Investors
• Gold is Pricing in a Market Shutdown & Price Controls – Armstrong Economics (video)
• After Disillusioned Bulls Sold Last Ounce, Gold Started Rallying – One River Asset Mgmt.
• FURTHER ‘MODEST’ INTEREST RATE CUTS APPEAR APPROPRIATE – FED’S KASHKARI
• Gold Gains as Traders Weigh Path of Fed Rate Cuts & Middle East Fears – Bloomberg
• There Are Significant Shortages of Physical Gold – Egon von Greyerz at Gold Switzerland
• Gold industry sees prices rising to $2,941/oz over 12 months – Mining.com
• This Will Destroy the Dollar: Yellen Stealing Russian Assets – Jim Rickards
• Ronnie Stoeferle: 5 Reasons Why The Gold Rally Is Not Over Yet – Incrementum AG
• Bank of America: Gold emerges as more attractive safe-haven than bonds – Investing.com
• Bank of America calls gold the last safe haven against U.S. debt disaster – Cryptopolitan
• Harris and Trump are equally silent on the expanding US debt – Financial Times
• Gold Hits New Record-High Of Over $2,700oz – One America News
• Is gold safer than U.S. Treasury bonds as federal debt keeps soaring? – Fortune
• WGC: BRICS countries now control over 20% of world’s gold reserves – NewRulesGeo 
• Why the west should be paying more attention to the gold price rise – Financial Times

• Rick Santelli: Budget deficit putting Treasury prices in danger zone – CNBC, 22 (video)
• What the surging price of gold says about a dangerous world – The Economist
• ‘Record gold purchases on loss of confidence in US ability to influence world’ – Le Monde
• Chinese Consumers Slow Gold Buying w/Price at Record Highs – YiCai Global 
• Storing your wealth in gold superior to storing wealth in housing – In Gold We Trust

• Gold Miners Drop as Newmont’s earnings disappoint on cost concerns – Seeking Alpha
• Bank of America’s Hartnett Says Bets on Gold Rising Before US Election – Bloomberg
• Jamie Dimon worries ‘World War III has already begun’ – MarketWatch
• Major Shift Revealed as Western Investors Suddenly Run to Gold – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Gold as the Solution: Judy Shelton’s Plan to Fix America’s Dollar Crisis – Kitco (video)
• Gold predicted to climb higher than expected as records shatter – Goldman Sachs 
• Europeans Told to Stockpile Food in Case of War With Russia – Newsweek
• US, Moscow on ‘brink’ of direct conflict, Lavrov warns – Alarbiya News
• Key Fed inflation at 2.1% in Sep. YoY, slowest since Feb. 2021. – Fox Business

 

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of automated trading decisions, HFT platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction at all times within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for investing in swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to timing for layering core long-term positions or purchasing physical bullion and coins. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

Gold Spot weekly chart as of Oct. 31, 2024, 5pm ET close…

 

Excerpt from the Aug. 30, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The Financial Times article on Aug. 28 referred to gold’s bouts of strength this year as a ‘cyclical’ trend, but it’s more appropriate to define it as seasonality, which was covered in my previous analysis. Gold printed a new ATH of $2,531.59 on Aug. 20 and settled at $2,502.32 into Friday’s close. The ATH occurred after breaching the Flag Tilt’s topside trendline and/or the Neckline of an Inverse Head & Shoulders continuation pattern. A subsequent Throwback tested support at the Symmetrical Triangle’s topside trendline that formed prior to the ATH and has since incurred a consolidation with higher lows and ATH resistance that’s forming an Ascending Triangle. I have updated Fibonacci Extensions off of the new ATH with a couple near-term resistance levels to watch for when the price action rallies into additional blue-sky territory. There may be additional consolidation before a new high is reached and is dependent upon economic and geopolitical news cycles. There is no technical damage in the daily or weekly (has a bullish DMI-ADX) chart, and the price action remains bullish.”

Excerpt from the Sep. 26, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Gold’s price action decisively left the Aug. 20 ATH of $2,531.59 in the dust on Sep. 12 with a breakout from the Rectangle Top (Flag?) consolidation pattern. An Ascending Scallop formed following the Fed’s interest rate cut on Sep. 18 and an enormous buy Volume spike on Sep. 19 that set up a short-lived Flag Tilt and subsequent rally higher this week. The price action printed an ATH today of $2,685.41 and closed at $2,672.20 when spot trading shut down for one hour at 5pm ET until the 6pm GLOBEX open. Note how the price action has taken a breather (on daily chart) at each Fibonacci Extension level in blue-sky territory. The price is currently too far beyond the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the StochRSI clearly indicates an overbought condition but could linger a bit longer, the DMI-ADX (not shown) is set up with an Alligator Tongue that could launch an upside power trend, and buy Volume remains solid. The chart is bullish, and a breather with some consolidation is the ideal outcome in the near term. Note that the higher the price runs and extends beyond the 50 EMA, the larger an eventual pullback will be in search of solid support levels.”

Gold consolidated within a Half Staff Flag following the Sep. 26 analysis and then broke out and printed a new ATH this week at $2,790 and closed today at $2,744 following U.S. unemployment claims data released this morning. One more day of trading remains for the week, and the weekly candlestick closed today as a Northern Doji (50/50 chance for more gains or a corrective price action). There was more selling than buying today, and the final print is a toss-up. The reports tomorrow morning on U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rates for October will determine the final candle. No matter how the job numbers play out tomorrow, any event in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Iran wars over the weekend can significantly influence the near-term price action when trading resumes Sunday evening through Monday.

The upside price action since mid-June that added $500 per ounce has been spectacular with healthy consolidations and remaining above August’s lower trendline. The first level of solid support is at $2,650 within the Half Staff Flag from late September through early October. I annotated two additional Fibonacci Extension levels for blue-sky target levels if this secular bull market phase continues to run unabated through the holiday season with no extended breather or major correction. The DMI-ADX remains in power-trend mode, the price is still too far beyond the 50 EMA, but the overall buy Volume since mid-August is still strong and rising. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted if an indecisive Northern Doji or a Plunger Candle is the final print this week.

Silver Spot weekly chart as of Oct. 31, 2024, 5pm ET close…

 

Excerpt from the Aug. 30, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver has rallied since printing a low above the $26 support at $26.34 on Aug. 8, encountering resistance at $30.17 on Aug. 26, and closing at $28.42 on Friday. The price action appears to be forming a Half Staff Flag on the daily chart around the 50 EMA and above 2024’s 38.2% Fibonacci level. Resistance at $30 must be decisively retaken on large buy Volume for the Descending Broadening Wedge’s topside trendline to be challenged and retest the $32.50 high from May 20. The DMI-ADX is indecisive but remains positive, and the buy Volume has been solid since mid-August with one day of large selling that mirrored gold’s Throwback from its ATH. The technical damage noted in the Aug. 11 analysis was repaired after the price surged back above the 50 EMA on Aug. 16. The chart has returned to a bullish stance but is reliant upon the Half Staff Flag manifesting a rally above the $30 resistance.”

Excerpt from the Sep. 26, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver rallied with vigor after printing a Triple Bottom in early September and spiked back above the 50 EMA on Sep. 12. The price action mirrored gold during the Fed’s interest rate cut announcement, and an enormous buy Volume bar on the following day launched a rally above the Descending Broadening Wedge’s topside trendline with a few days of battle. That consolidation formed a bearish Rising Wedge, but momentum ignored that pattern and the price rallied this week into strong resistance at around the $32.50 high from May 20. The price action did not decisively take out $32.50 today and ran into resistance at $32.70 before pulling back and printing a bearish Plunger Candle. Just like with gold, the price is extended too far beyond the 50 EMA, the StochRSI shows an overbought condition that might linger a bit longer, the DMI-ADX (not shown) is set up with an Alligator Tongue for an upside power trend, and buy Volume is solid. If silver leaves $32.50 in the dust sooner than later, the next major resistance levels are $35.50 and $37.50. The chart is bullish, and a breather with some consolidation is the ideal outcome in the near term. Note that the higher the price runs and extends beyond the 50 EMA, the larger an eventual pullback will be in search of solid support levels.”

Silver consolidated following the Sep. 26 analysis and ripped $2 higher on Oct. 18. The rally stalled at its $34.85 high on Oct. 22, and a Northern Doji candle printed a $33.64 close last week. The price action closed today at $32.67 with a bearish Plunger Candle following the U.S. unemployment claims data this morning. One more day of trading remains for the week, and the U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rate for October will determine the final candlestick tomorrow.

The upside price action since the first week of August was healthy with brief consolidations and added a huge $8.20 per ounce as of last week’s high. The first level of solid support rests slightly above $32, and the next level is at around $31.50 at the Up Channel’s lower trendline. Upside resistance is at the $35.50 and $37.50 laterals drawn back to 2012. The DMI-ADX remains in power trend mode but has been trending sideways since mid-September, the price is still too far beyond the 50 EMA, and buying Volume since mid-August was strong and rising until selling appeared last week. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted if a bearish Plunger Candle is the final print this week.

Schiff on Schwab Network: Gold Just Getting Started – Peter Schiff, Oct. 1

 

Paul Tudor Jones: Not going to own any fixed income, U.S. going broke, buy gold – CNBC Part 2 (link to Part 1), Oct. 22

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com