War drums surrounding Iran and its nuclear program are pounding sand again in Persia. As a refresher on related events that have taken place since 2018, peruse these articles before continuing any further:
- A Sinking Feeling About Nuclear Persia – Aug. 2018
- A New Revolution Brewing as Iranians Burn Down the Banks – Nov. 2019
- A Sinking Feeling About Nuclear Persia Part 2 – U.S. Embassy Attack – Dec. 31, 2019
- Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles at U.S. Military and Coalition Forces – Jan. 7, 2020
When tensions escalated with Iran in late 2019, gold was breaking out of its $1,380 Fibonacci resistance cage of six years. It made its next decisive move upward during its typical end-of-year seasonality and Iran dominated the headlines along with impeachment of the POTUS on the table.
“The $1,500 price level was breached after the U.S. Embassy was besieged by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq in Dec. 2019. Following a drone strike on Jan. 2 that killed General Soleimani and militia leaders in response to their coordination of rocket attacks on U.S. coalition forces on Jan. 2, the $1,526 Fibonacci level was taken out decisively and rallied to the $1,586 Fibonacci. After the $1,579 close today on FOREX during its daily one-hour break at 5pm, headline news that Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces spiked the price to $1,611 shortly after 6pm. The world is now holding its breath.” – TraderStef
Gold & Oil Spike As Stocks, Bond Yields Plunge After Iran Attack… “Just when you thought it was safe to buy the most expensive, most complacent stock market rally in the world… Iran begins retaliation against America’s killing of Soleimani. Dow futures are down over 400 points.” – ZH, Jan. 2019
Pentagon says more than a dozen missiles ‘launched from Iran’ against 2 US bases, vows ‘necessary’ counter-measures… “‘Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against US military and coalition forces in Iraq. It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases,’ the Pentagon said in a statement on Tuesday.” – RT, Jan. 2019
Leonidas Meets Xerxes – 300
At around 9 AM EST yesterday, Iranian media reported that the country’s “father” of their nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated. He is often referred to as Iran’s Robert Oppenheimer.
“One of our country’s eminent scientists in the nuclear & defense fields – Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh has been martyred by brutal mercenaries. With his great, enduring scientific efforts, he sacrificed his life on the path of God & the lofty status of martyrdom is his divine reward.” – Ali Khamenei
Iran scientist linked to military nuclear program killed… “Details about the slaying remained slim in the hours after the attack, which happened in Absard, a village just east of the capital that is a retreat for the Iranian elite. Iranian state television said an old truck with explosives hidden under a load of wood blew up near a sedan carrying Fakhrizadeh. As Fakhrizadeh’s sedan stopped, at least five gunmen emerged and raked the car with rapid fire, the semiofficial Tasnim news agency said.” – AP
On Apr. 30, 2018, Benjamin Netanyahu presented a hoard of evidence to the world on Iran’s secret nuclear program and its intentions. The mainstream media and alternative sources are now quoting Netanyahu from that presentation when he said “remember that name, Fakhrizadeh.”
Israel’s Iran documents show nuclear deal ‘was built on lies’… “US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says a landmark nuclear deal with Iran was ‘built on lies,’ after Israel claimed to have proof of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons programme… Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters on Monday that Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad had obtained 55,000 pages of evidence and a further 55,000 files on 183 CDs relating to Project Amad. Mossad first discovered the warehouse in southern Tehran in February 2016, and put the building under surveillance. In January, intelligence agents managed to break into the property in the middle of the night, remove the original documents and smuggle them back into Israel the same night.” – BBC, May 1, 2018
Let this be a warning to Biden: Iran has been cheating this whole time… “‘Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh,’ Netanyahu said at the time. For those who forgot, a brief refresher. Fakhrizadeh was the founder of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, known as the Amad Plan — charged with building some of the world’s deadliest weapons for the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. In 2011, he broke off to lead a secretive organization called the Organization for Defensive Innovation and Research, commonly referred to by its Persian acronym of SPND.” – FDD, Nov. 27, 2020
Consider the political inter-relationships that are noted during this interview at Fox News with Walid Phares one day before Fakhrizadeh’s assassination.
After repeated headlines this past month that the Trump administration was planning a potential military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, I find it too convenient for Iran to blame Israel and the U.S. out of the gate for the assassination no matter how logical it appears. Consider an assassination that occurred in Iran this past August.
Abu Muhammad al-Masri’s assassination exposes relations between Tehran and al Qaeda… “The assassins were professionals and they had planned carefully. On Aug. 7, 2020, around 9 o’clock on a warm evening, they rode a motorcycle down a street in Pasdaran, a well-off Tehran neighborhood. They pulled alongside a white Renault L90. A middle-aged man was at the wheel, a young woman in the seat next to him. Five shots were fired from a pistol fitted with a silencer. The motorcycle sped off… News of this assassination appeared in October on an al Qaeda-linked social media platform translated by MEMRI… His nom de guerre was Abu Muhammad al-Masri (indicating his Egyptian origin) and the guerre he was fighting was al Qaeda’s: He was the organization’s ‘deputy emir,’ second only to Ayman al Zawahiri… Perhaps I can help sort this out. The regime in Tehran and the terrorist organization with franchises in multiple countries have long collaborated against common enemies, the United States chief among them. Their theological differences notwithstanding, they have much in common. Both are committed to waging jihad (with terrorism as a signature weapon), spreading their (not identical) interpretations of Islamic law, and re-establishing a great and powerful Islamic empire that is to diminish and eventually defeat America and the West. In other words, they are rivals. Rivals are not the same as enemies, bitter or otherwise.” – Washington Times, Nov. 24
There are many ways to slice and dice motives for those who may or may not be responsible for the killing of Fakhrizadeh. There are too many moving parts in this story and it’s thick with political agendas for steering geopolitics in a particular direction. The Arab Coalition that Walid Phares pointed out does not want Iran to go nuclear, and then there is al Qaeda that may want to elicit a war against the U.S. when we are perceived as weak due to the 2020 presidential election being in limbo.
- Iran accuses Israel of assassination seeking ‘chaos’ – Ahram, Nov. 28
- Israeli embassies on alert after retaliation threats – Reuters
- Iran vows revenge after assassination – Jerusalem Post
- Iran accuses Israel of trying to ‘create full-blown war – DailyMail UK
I asked Jim Rickards if he has any thoughts on the current situation.
“Time will tell. If Tehran cannot protect their most valuable human assets, it suggests deeper problems in the regime.”
You can find my most recent analysis on gold at “Patience and Diligence – Gold Technical Analysis,” published on Nov. 22 and its Twitter thread for updates.
Godfather II – Keep Your Friends Close, But Enemies Closer
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Website: https://traderstef.com
