Friday, September 9 was a fairly awful day for the stock market. All three major indices shed about 2% from the previous session as fears of a pending interest rate hike dominated Wall Street. This level of volatility has not been seen this year since the “Brexit” panic. Even more concerning, this was an across the board selloff, with gold and silver not escaping unscathed.
The precious metals are of course seen as a safe haven asset. This is more true for gold than it is for silver. But since the two have a very strong correlation, silver’s near-3% loss on Friday doesn’t inspire confidence for the metals as a whole. Like what happened in most crashes before this, there is apprehension that volatility will revisit the bullion markets.
For investors that have already seen terrible valuation collapses, it’s a stomach-churning scenario. Yet one has to acknowledge that the panic in the stock market is hardly equitable to the selloff in gold and silver.
In the case of blue-chip markets, their collapse comes in the context of a previous rally that was built on nothing but speculation. A few weeks after Brexit, equities, with little warning, started moving higher. It makes sense that interest rate fears would burst the rally’s bubble. Outside of monetary intervention, there was no justification for stocks being that lofty.
The precious metals, on the other hand, are experiencing a natural correction. I believe this to be the case because the overall bullish trend channel has yet to be violated. Even for silver, the same thing can be said. True, the white metal is volatile on both the upswing and downswing as compared to gold; however, silver’s dominant trend as roughly defined by its 50 day moving average is very much bullish.
Let’s also consider that in the stock market’s case, its post-Friday valuation pegs it halfway between its 50 and 200 DMA. That is a technical no-man’s-land, and the bears will surely beckon it to fall even lower. In contrast, gold and silver — while below their respective 50 DMA lines — are still well above their 200 DMA lines. Comparatively, there’s still significant strength left in precious metals that you’re just not seeing in equities.
The discussion will of course change if gold drops to $1,240 and silver drops to $17. But for right now, the pairings will have to fall substantially for this to become a reality. What’s more, mainstream analysts should really pay attention to the traditional bellwether companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500.
It was a rough day, but gold and silver are still holding up well. The same can’t be said for the blue chips.