Cattle prices rallied to record highs in September 2023 after the pandemic lows in April 2020 with live cattle futures up 130% at $187.57 and feeder cattle up 147% at $257.50. The price action has pulled back in both classes of meat over the last two months. If you were fortunate enough to trade that bull wave with a portfolio mix that included cattle, frozen orange juice (Twitter thread), and sugar (thread), it would have outperformed the majority of stock market asset classes, indices, and funds. Despite the retreat in prices that appear to have a bit further to go, the fundamentals picture for beef is bullish through 2024. Here are the articles and technical analyses I’ve published on beef since 2019.
- Nanny State Boss and the Chief of Cows Hypocrisy – Feb. 28, 2019 (Twitter thread)
- Where’s the Price of Beef and “The Cowboys” – Mar. 29 (thread)
- A Vegan Butcher FOMO Just Beyond Beef Street – Oct. 23 (thread)
- Severe Drought Forcing the Extraordinary Slaughter of Cattle – Jul. 25, 2022 (thread)
- Lab-Grown Frankenmeat Debut and the Vegan Butcher Fad – Jun. 20, 2023 (thread)
A woke cult that embraces the global warming hoax that morphed into a climate change narrative, the WEF agenda that wants humanity to eat bugs, be happy, and conform to a transhumanism future, government jackboots that raid Amish farms, synthetic meats and lab-grown poultry, mRNA vaccinated agriculture, and various fake food fads are finding out that substitutes for basic whole foods are unhealthy diets and often contain toxic fillers and additives. Alternative food companies like Beyond Meat are struggling to stay afloat due to low consumer demand, and stock prices across the industry are taking a beating.
After decades of studies on fats and cholesterol, it turns out that what naturally occur in unprocessed foods such as meat and dairy products do not promote disease and aren’t the heart killers they were advertised for decades to be vs. “diet” foods and beverages, hydrogenated and/or vegetable and seed oils found in margarine, egg substitutes, fast foods, snacks, and a plethora of processed foods. I will post a selection of articles to consider why “red meat is not a health risk” and an educational video on the cholesterol scam. Meanwhile, the U.S. cattle population continues to fall, and global exports are dwindling.
U.S. reduces beef exports as cattle herd shrinks… “The decline in cattle numbers, after years of drought fried pasture lands used for grazing, led to soaring U.S. beef prices. Higher prices incentivize companies to import cheaper beef and discourage U.S. beef purchases by buyers like China, Japan, and Egypt… U.S. beef exports are projected to sink 14% this year from 2022 to 3 billion pounds, the lowest since COVID-19 roiled meat processing and international trading in 2020. In 2024, when USDA expects U.S. production to decline further due to tight cattle supplies, exports are forecast to hit an eight-year low of 2.8 billion pounds… Beef prices are already at record high in retail, with domestic supplies facing significant declines this year… U.S. ranchers have not started to rebuild the domestic herd, producers and analysts said, with more than half the nation’s cattle in areas that are still abnormally dry. The number of heifers, or young female cows, in U.S. feedlots as of Oct. 1 was up 1.3% from a year earlier, signaling that producers are fattening them for slaughter instead of keeping them on farms to reproduce.” – Reuters, Nov. 10
“U.S. production and exports: U.S. beef production is forecast down 6 percent on tighter cattle inventories. The decline in production coupled with increased supplies in Australia will spur growth in imports and a decrease in exports. Imports are forecast at 1.7 million tons, a level only achieved in 2004. Exports are forecast 6 percent lower to 1.3 million tons, constrained by lower domestic production and price competitive supplies from other key suppliers (Australia and Brazil).” – USDA Livestock & Poultry, World Markets & Trade Oct. 2023
The price for beef at your favorite grocery store or butcher is likely to stabilize in the near term, but prices will remain elevated or go higher in 2024. I recommend that everyone stock up on beef sales. Here is the latest data for live cattle and feeder cattle futures.
Note that an ETF for beef and pork I covered in previous analyses is no longer available to trade. The iPath Series Bloomberg Livestock ETN, $COW, was delisted in Jun. 2023. It closed at $39.87 on its final day of trading, printed a $26.40 low in Mar. 2020, and printed a $54.65 all-time high in Mar. 2019. Here are the live cattle and feeder cattle futures as of today’s close. There is no technical analysis commentary for today, but take note of last year’s excerpt for both charts.
Live Cattle Futures weekly chart as of Nov. 16, 2023 close…
Excerpt from the Jul. 25, 2022 monthly chart analysis:
“The downward trendline was taken out in Aug. 2021. A rally within the Up Channel breached the overhead 61.8% Fibonacci level and a high of $144 printed in Feb. 2022. The subsequent pullback has pivoted back to the 61.8% Fibonacci and printed a high of $138 as of today. There will likely be resistance at $144 or near $152 as a glut of meat supply impacts the market. After excess inventory is sold off this fall, a rally could match or exceed the 2014 high in 2023.”
Feeder Cattle Futures weekly chart as of Nov. 16, 2023 close…
Excerpt from the Jul. 25, 2022 monthly chart analysis:
“There were several months of chop in the low $160s before a breakout in the last two months. The price action printed a high of $182 yesterday and closed at $179 today. The rally within the Up Channel appears to be on its way to the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $191. There will likely be resistance as the price approaches $191 and a glut of beef impacts the market. After excess inventory is sold off, a rally could match the all-time high price levels seen in 2014.”
Here are the foody articles and one education video.
Eggs: Nature’s Perfect Food… “Out of all of nature’s bountiful provisions for us on here on earth, the egg receives the top ranking in providing our bodies with absolutely every nutrient it needs.” – Rolling Strong, Apr. 2019
Red meat is not a health risk. New study slams years of shoddy research… “We found weak evidence of association between unprocessed red meat consumption and colorectal cancer, breast cancer, type 2 diabetes, and ischemic heart disease. Moreover, we found no evidence of an association between unprocessed red meat and ischemic stroke or hemorrhagic stroke, they summarized.” – Big Think, Nov. 2022
Veteran-Owned ‘Clean Beef’ Beef Company Says It Would Rather Shut Down Than Accept mRNA Injections in Cattle – Epoch Times, Jul. 2023
“High cholesterol doesn’t cause heart disease. And there is a good chance you can get off your statins (cholesterol medication). Let me explain why & how.” – DrBPHealth Dr. BP | Metabolism 2.0 (Twitter thread) , Nov. 9
The Great Cholesterol Deception – Statins “Trainwreck” (Updated) – Dr. Stephanie Seneff, Ph.D. at MIT
Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan