Election Day 2024: One Thing Is 100% Certain

The pundits are out in full force with poll data and theories galore. Yet, there’s no consensus on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next U.S. president. Still, even amid the uncertainty, there’s one thing that Americans can count on.

Without a doubt, the presidential election results will be contested. It’s practically an American tradition at this point, with the Trump-Harris result potentially taking on Bush-Gore 2000 election contest proportions.

Could the post-election tensions erupt into violence? Attorneys and advisors to family offices and high-net-worth families seem to believe so. Reportedly, they’re seeing record demand from clients interested in second passports or long-term residencies outside the U.S.

It’s not about who actually wins or loses the election. A survey from Arton Capital concluded that 53% of American millionaires say they’re more likely to leave the U.S. after the election regardless of who wins.

Moreover, 64% of millionaires between 18 and 29 said they’re “very interested” in seeking “golden visas” through a residency-by-investment program overseas. Apparently, if you have enough available capital to spend, some countries encourage citizenship through investment programs:

Courtesy: CNBC

The U.S. has earned a reputation as a powder keg during election cycles, it seems. It’s quite unusual, you must admit, that some millionaires would flee to Grenada because they view post-election America as too volatile.

Don’t get the wrong idea. These wealthy Americans see a range of problematic issues, from mass school shootings to the government’s soaring debts, as reasons to leave the U.S. Yet, it’s the potential for election-related violence that’s garnering interest in the press right now.

There are also economic reasons for wealthy Americans to consider leaving. Of particular interest is Harris’s plan to tax unrealized capital gains for individuals worth more than $100 million.

David Lesperance, managing partner of Lesperance and Associates, observed that this threat is top-of-mind for some wealthy Americans even if Harris’s tax plan is unlikely to get past Congress. “Even if there is only a 3% chance that it happens, you still want to take out insurance,” Lesperance concluded.

Even if there’s no widespread violence in the days following the November 5 election, don’t expect a smooth resolution irrespective of who’s declared the winner at first. Much like the elections of 2000, 2016, and 2020, this year’s election will likely end up in limbo as votes are counted and re-counted.

Amid the backdrop of uncertainty, Rosenberg Research & Associates founder David Rosenberg warns, “This will be the mother of all contested elections replete with recounts and legal challenges. It will be Gore vs Bush in November 2000 on steroids.”

Courtesy: @P_O_L_I_T_I_K_A

Rosenberg added, “Remember that period of political uncertainty lasted a full month and went all the way to the Supreme Court,” referring to the 2000 election. His “playbook” for investors, then, is “long gold, bonds and the VIX; short the SPX and the USD.”

Personally, I’m not shorting the S&P 500 or buying government bonds anytime in the near future. I do like the “long gold” idea, though, and it’s notable that Rosenberg put that idea front and center.

I’m also not eager to short the U.S. dollar as a trade, though I haven’t changed my expectations about the dollar’s inevitable path to worthlessness. That, I believe, is a certainty – and so is a long, drawn-out post-election battle that will test your resolve as an investor and citizen.